SAT 12:00 ET|BRYANT-DENNY STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP23|O/U46.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
21
4-8
77
53
68
58%
53
60
13.5
+850
+19.5
HOME
24
12-2
100
89
89
40%
26
100
33.0
-1350
-19.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALARK21—ALA24
CLOSED ALA -19.5TOTAL 46.5ARK COVERED · 45 POINTS · UNDER
ARK
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ALA
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 7 FIELD n=55
MARKET
TOTAL46.5
SPREADALA -19.5
IMPLIED — ARK13.5
IMPLIED — ALA33.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
42FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT3 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 3 positions on a 55-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
ARKRECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs5.7-6.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-5
POINT MARGIN / GAME-1.3
ARKANSAS won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ALARECORD OVERSTATES
12-1ACTUALvs10.7-2.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+16.7
ALABAMA won 12 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 10.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERARKANSASALABAMA2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE84%Trey KnoxPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMatt LandersWR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJadon HaselwoodWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB77%Drew SandersLB · 36% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBumper PoolLB · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan DomineckPORTAL · COLORADO · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL47%Luke JonesOL · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDalton WagnerOL · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB45%Simeon BlairPORTAL · MEMPHIS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLatavious BriniDB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMyles SlusherPORTAL · COLORADO · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL38%Isaiah NicholsPORTAL · PURDUE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTerry HamptonDL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDorian GeraldDL · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB1%James Jointer Jr.PORTAL · LIBERTY · <1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TEVar'Keyes Gumms · PORTAL ★4 · NORTH TEXASTyrone Broden · PORTAL ★4 · BOWLING GREENIsaac TeSlaa · PORTAL ★3 · HILLSDALE COLLEGE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBJaheim Thomas · PORTAL ★3 · CINCINNATIAntonio Grier · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH FLORIDAREFILLED
OLJoshua Braun · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDALuke Brown · SIGNEE ★4Paris Patterson Jr. · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBJaheim Singletary · PORTAL ★4 · GEORGIAAlfahiym Walcott · PORTAL ★4 · BAYLORLorando Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · BAYLOR4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLAnthony Booker · PORTAL ★4 · MARYLANDTrajan Jeffcoat · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURIQuincy Rhodes Jr. · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
RBIsaiah Augustave · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · ARKANSAS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
53.048 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
61.070 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
49.138 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5858839252 OF 5 GRADED
RB5050858986 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE575768322513 OF 25 GRADED
OL515172572112 OF 21 GRADED
DL696982501713 OF 17 GRADED
LB62628742129 OF 12 GRADED
DB525266442414 OF 24 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE77th77
BLUE-CHIP RATIO36%84
RECRUITING CLASS#22 · 8/27 BC84
CLASS RANK TREND+2 · 3 CYCLES54
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 17 IN / 31 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX43%83
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ALANICK SABAN8TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5959
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ARKSAM PITTMAN4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3636
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3333
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESARK OFFENSEALA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBARKANSAS OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEALABAMA DEFENSE ARK QUARTERBACKSn=58% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ALA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 64 PLAYERS28% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLARKANSAS OFFENSEFRONT-7ALABAMA DEFENSE ARK OFFENSIVE LINEn=2143% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ALA FRONT-7n=39 · 2 ROOMS8% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBARKANSAS OFFENSEFRONT-7ALABAMA DEFENSE ARK RUNNING BACKSn=811% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ALA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 39 PLAYERS9% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557095%87%LINEBACKERSLB
0.456387%63%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEARKANSAS OFFENSESECONDARYALABAMA DEFENSE ARK PASS CATCHERSn=2568% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ALA SECONDARYn=25 · 1 ROOM44% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ARK
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ALA
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+19
+5
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ARK
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ALA
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ARK
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ALA
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS62.3%
66.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS63.7%
62.5%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.2%
0.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ARK, ORANGE = ALA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE