SAT 15:30 ET|KELLY/SHORTS STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP17|O/U44.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
10
2-10
26
2
46
72%
14
16
16.8
+345
+10.5
HOME
17
5-7
9
39
2
36%
40
18
27.3
-470
-10.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALAKR10—CMU17
CLOSED CMU -10.5TOTAL 44.0AKR COVERED · 27 POINTS · UNDER
AKR
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
CMU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 7 FIELD n=55
MARKET
TOTAL44.0
SPREADCMU -10.5
IMPLIED — AKR16.8
IMPLIED — CMU27.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
47FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT13 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 13 positions on a 55-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
AKRRECORD MATCHES
2-10ACTUALvs2.6-9.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-5
POINT MARGIN / GAME-11.8
AKRON won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
CMURECORD OVERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs4.0-8.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-7.9
CENTRAL MICHIGAN won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERAKRONCENTRAL MICHIGAN2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DL77%Victor JonesDL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCurtis HarperDL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZach MortonDL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB67%Bubba ArslanianLB · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTim TerryLB · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJeslord BoatengPORTAL · LOUISIANA TECH · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB53%Cam WileyRB · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL44%Anthony WhiganOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMax BanesPORTAL · HOUSTON · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKa'Marii LandersOL · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE39%Shocky Jacques-LouisWR · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTristian BrankTE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB18%Jalen HooksCB · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaylen Kelly-PowellS · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DLMarcus Moore · SIGNEE ★3Bruno Dall · SIGNEE ★3Ahmad Rabah · SIGNEEPARTIAL
LBShammond Cooper · PORTAL ★4 · ILLINOISRich Benenge · SIGNEE ★3Kameron Cheatom · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBLorenzo Lingard · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDAREFILLED
OLJayvin James · SIGNEE ★3Jonas Mann · SIGNEE ★3Maurice Long · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TEConner Cravaack · SIGNEE ★3Jean Louis III · SIGNEE ★2PARTIAL
DBJoey Hunter · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH CAROLINADavid Jester · SIGNEE ★3Darius Owens · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · AKRON
CARRIED COMPOSITE
51.242 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
59.165 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
45.832 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB2929288373 OF 7 GRADED
RB424250263 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE181857801910 OF 19 GRADED
OL202029771812 OF 18 GRADED
DL464629281816 OF 18 GRADED
LB38384372107 OF 10 GRADED
DB373758792215 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE26th26
BLUE-CHIP RATIO7%41
RECRUITING CLASS#109 · 0/21 BC19
CLASS RANK TREND+10 · 3 CYCLES70
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 4 IN / 12 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX37%53
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
CMUJIM MCELWAIN5TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1010
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3636
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
AKRJOE MOORHEAD2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8686
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2121
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESAKR OFFENSECMU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBAKRON OFFENSEFULL DEFENSECENTRAL MICHIGAN DEFENSE AKR QUARTERBACKSn=717% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CMU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERS10% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLAKRON OFFENSEFRONT-7CENTRAL MICHIGAN DEFENSE AKR OFFENSIVE LINEn=1823% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CMU FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS1% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBAKRON OFFENSEFRONT-7CENTRAL MICHIGAN DEFENSE AKR RUNNING BACKSn=698% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CMU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS1% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553399%0%LINEBACKERSLB
0.4518100%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEAKRON OFFENSESECONDARYCENTRAL MICHIGAN DEFENSE AKR PASS CATCHERSn=1920% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CMU SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM18% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
AKR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CMU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+21
+1
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
AKR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CMU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
AKR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CMU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS48.1%
62.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS79.1%
60.5%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.8%
0.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = AKR, ORANGE = CMU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE