SAT 16:00 ET|HUSKIE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP1|O/U45.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
13
10-3
12
16
75
92%
62
2
25.3
-218
-5.5
HOME
23
7-6
13
36
42
62%
24
0
19.8
+180
+5.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALOHIO13—NIU23
CLOSED OHIO -5.5TOTAL 45.0NIU COVERED · 36 POINTS · UNDER
OHIO
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
NIU
OHIO
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
NIU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 7 FIELD n=55
MARKET
TOTAL45.0
SPREADOHIO -5.5
IMPLIED — OHIO25.3
IMPLIED — NIU19.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
32FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT9 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 9 positions on a 55-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
OHIORECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs8.6-3.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+7.5
OHIO won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NIURECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs7.2-4.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-5
POINT MARGIN / GAME+4.1
NORTHERN ILLINOIS won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEROHIONORTHERN ILLINOIS2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DL52%Jack McCroryDE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKai CaesarDT · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBryce DuganDE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB45%Tariq DrakeS · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlvin FloydS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZach SandersCB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL25%Hagen MeservyOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBryce RamerOL · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB19%Cannon BlauserLB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKyle KellyPORTAL · EASTERN KENTUCKY · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE16%James BosticWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB11%Jake NeathertonRB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DLKobi Gorman · SIGNEE ★3Danny Novickas · SIGNEE ★3Owen DiFranco · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBMiles Fleming · PORTAL ★3 · MINNESOTAWalter Reynolds · PORTAL ★2 · HOLY CROSSKendall Bannister · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
OLChes Jackson · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADO STATEDane Jackson · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH TEXASAidan Johnson · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBAndrew Marshall · SIGNEE ★3Brady Sestili · SIGNEE ★2PARTIAL
WR/TEChase Hendricks · SIGNEE ★3Mason Williams · SIGNEE ★3Desmond Duffy · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
RBRickey Hunt Jr. · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · OHIO
CARRIED COMPOSITE
63.481 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
74.489 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
57.359 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB52528110053 OF 5 GRADED
RB1616135985 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE323271932513 OF 25 GRADED
OL464637991912 OF 19 GRADED
DL686842852211 OF 22 GRADED
LB63634495136 OF 13 GRADED
DB444429672014 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE12th12
BLUE-CHIP RATIO2%13
RECRUITING CLASS#97 · 0/16 BC28
CLASS RANK TREND+2 · 3 CYCLES54
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 4 IN / 6 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX33%32
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NIUTHOMAS HAMMOCK5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
88
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5757
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
OHIOTIM ALBIN3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4343
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESOHIO OFFENSENIU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBOHIO OFFENSEFULL DEFENSENORTHERN ILLINOIS DEFENSE OHIO QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NIU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 55 PLAYERS19% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLOHIO OFFENSEFRONT-7NORTHERN ILLINOIS DEFENSE OHIO OFFENSIVE LINEn=191% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NIU FRONT-7n=35 · 2 ROOMS34% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBOHIO OFFENSEFRONT-7NORTHERN ILLINOIS DEFENSE OHIO RUNNING BACKSn=841% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NIU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 35 PLAYERS37% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553890%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEOHIO OFFENSESECONDARYNORTHERN ILLINOIS DEFENSE OHIO PASS CATCHERSn=257% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NIU SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM7% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
OHIO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NIU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−38
−20
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
OHIO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NIU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
OHIO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NIU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS57.4%
62.2%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS61.2%
65.8%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.6%
1.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = OHIO, ORANGE = NIU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE