SAT 19:30 ET|NOTRE DAME STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP2|O/U61.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
20
8-5
95
98
16
74%
28
96
29.0
+105
+3.0
HOME
48
10-3
93
95
97
35%
12
34
32.0
-125
-3.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALUSC20—ND48
CLOSED ND -3.0TOTAL 61.0ND COVERED · 68 POINTS · OVER
USC
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ND
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 7 FIELD n=55
MARKET
TOTAL61.0
SPREADND -3.0
IMPLIED — USC29.0
IMPLIED — ND32.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
58FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT10 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 10 positions on a 55-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
USCRECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs7.3-4.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.9
USC won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NDRECORD UNDERSTATES
9-3ACTUALvs10.6-1.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+22.5
NOTRE DAME won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUSCNOTRE DAME2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE48%Jordan AddisonWR · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJosh FaloTE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKyle FordPORTAL · UCLA · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL46%Tuli TuipulotuDL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrandon PiliDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNick FigueroaDL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB40%Travis DyeRB · 40% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL36%Brett NeilonOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAndrew VorheesOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB26%Mekhi BlackmonDB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLatrell McCutchin Sr.DB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB24%Ralen GoforthPORTAL · WASHINGTON · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTuasivi NomuraPORTAL · FRESNO STATE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TEDorian Singer · PORTAL ★4 · ARIZONAZachariah Branch · SIGNEE ★5Duce Robinson · SIGNEE ★53 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLBear Alexander · PORTAL ★4 · GEORGIAAnthony Lucas · PORTAL ★4 · TEXAS A&MJack Sullivan · PORTAL ★4 · PURDUE2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBMarShawn Lloyd · PORTAL ★4 · SOUTH CAROLINAQuinten Joyner · SIGNEE ★4A'Marion Peterson · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
OLEmmanuel Pregnon · PORTAL ★4 · WYOMINGMichael Tarquin · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDAJarrett Kingston · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTON STATE1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBChristian Roland-Wallace · PORTAL ★4 · ARIZONATre'Quon Fegans · PORTAL ★4 · ALABAMAMaliki Crawford · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBMason Cobb · PORTAL ★4 · OKLAHOMA STATETackett Curtis · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · USC
CARRIED COMPOSITE
63.081 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
56.058 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
67.489 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5555999963 OF 6 GRADED
RB6161904677 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE717178582015 OF 20 GRADED
OL464690521816 OF 18 GRADED
DL656567411915 OF 19 GRADED
LB57577852139 OF 13 GRADED
DB636390791712 OF 17 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE95th95
BLUE-CHIP RATIO52%90
RECRUITING CLASS#8 · 13/27 BC95
CLASS RANK TREND0 · 3 CYCLES50
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+4 · 15 IN / 20 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX29%21
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NDMARCUS FREEMAN2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4747
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8181
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
USCLINCOLN RILEY2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9797
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6767
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUSC OFFENSEND OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUSC OFFENSEFULL DEFENSENOTRE DAME DEFENSE USC QUARTERBACKSn=61% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ND DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 47 PLAYERS17% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUSC OFFENSEFRONT-7NOTRE DAME DEFENSE USC OFFENSIVE LINEn=1848% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ND FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS13% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUSC OFFENSEFRONT-7NOTRE DAME DEFENSE USC RUNNING BACKSn=754% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ND FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS12% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557182%68%LINEBACKERSLB
0.456395%67%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUSC OFFENSESECONDARYNOTRE DAME DEFENSE USC PASS CATCHERSn=2042% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ND SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM20% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
USC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ND
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+18
−3
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
USC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ND
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
USC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ND
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS45.9%
62.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS73.4%
69.4%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.3%
2.2%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = USC, ORANGE = ND) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE