SAT 20:00 ET|RESER STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP21|O/U54.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
24
8-5
82
47
95
28%
89
45
25.3
+160
+3.5
HOME
36
8-5
61
94
80
53%
37
77
28.8
-192
-3.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALUCLA24—ORST36
CLOSED ORST -3.5TOTAL 54.0ORST COVERED · 60 POINTS · OVER
UCLA
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
ORST
UCLA
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ORST
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 7 FIELD n=55
MARKET
TOTAL54.0
SPREADORST -3.5
IMPLIED — UCLA25.3
IMPLIED — ORST28.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
41FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT19 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 19 positions on a 55-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
UCLARECORD UNDERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs8.4-3.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+7.7
UCLA won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ORSTRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.9-3.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+12.3
OREGON STATE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUCLAOREGON STATE2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB91%Dorian Thompson-RobinsonQB · 91% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL62%Jon Gaines IIOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAtonio MafiOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRaiqwon O'NealOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB57%Zach CharbonnetRB · 56% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE50%Jake BoboWR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMichael EzeikeTE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKazmeir AllenWR · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB48%Mo Osling IIIDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONStephan BlaylockDB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAzizi HearnDB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB18%Bo CalvertLB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL16%Jacob SykesDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBCollin Schlee · PORTAL ★4 · KENT STATEDante Moore · SIGNEE ★5Luke Duncan · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLKhadere Kounta · PORTAL ★3 · OLD DOMINIONSpencer Holstege · PORTAL ★3 · PURDUEJake Wiley · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADO1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBCarson Steele · PORTAL ★4 · BALL STATEAnthony Adkins · PORTAL ★3 · ARMYREFILLED
WR/TEJ.Michael Sturdivant · PORTAL ★4 · CALIFORNIAKyle Ford · PORTAL ★4 · USCMoliki Matavao · PORTAL ★3 · OREGON2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBJordan Anderson · PORTAL ★4 · BOWLING GREENR.J. Jones · SIGNEE ★3Ty Lee · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBOluwafemi Oladejo · PORTAL ★3 · CALIFORNIALarry Edwards III · SIGNEE ★3Mone Malafu · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLJake Heimlicher · PORTAL ★3 · PENNSYLVANIAKeanu Williams · PORTAL ★3 · OREGONGrant Buckey · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · UCLA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
54.352 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
37.016 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
64.980 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4242893764 OF 6 GRADED
RB58587553109 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE494969482317 OF 23 GRADED
OL444453762015 OF 20 GRADED
DL818165871913 OF 19 GRADED
LB686874781212 OF 12 GRADED
DB626273902321 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE82nd82
BLUE-CHIP RATIO29%81
RECRUITING CLASS#37 · 3/17 BC73
CLASS RANK TREND-8 · 3 CYCLES34
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+5 · 14 IN / 7 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 6th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX32%29
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ORSTJONATHAN SMITH6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4444
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8282
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UCLACHIP KELLY6TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5656
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9292
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUCLA OFFENSEORST OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUCLA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEOREGON STATE DEFENSE UCLA QUARTERBACKSn=663% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORST DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 57 PLAYERS22% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUCLA OFFENSEFRONT-7OREGON STATE DEFENSE UCLA OFFENSIVE LINEn=2024% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORST FRONT-7n=34 · 2 ROOMS14% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUCLA OFFENSEFRONT-7OREGON STATE DEFENSE UCLA RUNNING BACKSn=1047% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORST FRONT-72 ROOMS · 34 PLAYERS16% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556697%7%LINEBACKERSLB
0.456768%20%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUCLA OFFENSESECONDARYOREGON STATE DEFENSE UCLA PASS CATCHERSn=2352% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ORST SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM29% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UCLA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORST
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+2
−26
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UCLA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORST
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UCLA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ORST
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS59.3%
61.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS65.9%
66.8%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.8%
0.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UCLA, ORANGE = ORST) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE