SAT 20:00 ET|WALLACE WADE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP21|O/U42.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
3
9-4
73
52
91
39%
48
73
19.5
+150
+3.5
HOME
24
8-5
52
78
82
99%
8
51
23.0
-175
-3.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALNCSU3—DUKE24
CLOSED DUKE -3.5TOTAL 42.5DUKE COVERED · 27 POINTS · UNDER
NCSU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
DUKE
NCSU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
DUKE
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 7 FIELD n=55
MARKET
TOTAL42.5
SPREADDUKE -3.5
IMPLIED — NCSU19.5
IMPLIED — DUKE23.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
33FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT3 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 3 positions on a 55-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
NCSURECORD OVERSTATES
9-3ACTUALvs8.0-4.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.7
NC STATE won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
DUKERECORD UNDERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs8.3-3.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+8.0
DUKE won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERNC STATEDUKE2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB81%Devin LearyPORTAL · KENTUCKY · 41% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBen FinleyPORTAL · CALIFORNIA · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJack ChambersQB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB58%Drake ThomasLB · 32% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaiah MooreLB · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB52%Tanner IngleS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCyrus FaganS · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDerrek Pitts Jr.CB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE43%Thayer ThomasWR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDarryl JonesWR · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDevin CarterPORTAL · WEST VIRGINIA · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL39%Chandler ZavalaG · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGrant GibsonC · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBryson SpeasG · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL32%Cory DurdenDT · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoshua HarrisPORTAL · OLE MISS · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB17%Demie Sumo-KarngbayePORTAL · KENTUCKY · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBBrennan Armstrong · PORTAL ★4 · VIRGINIALex Thomas · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBKamal Bonner · SIGNEE ★3Kelvon McBride · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBRobert Kennedy · PORTAL ★3 · EAST CAROLINADaemon Fagan · SIGNEE ★4Brandon Cisse · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEDacari Collins · PORTAL ★3 · CLEMSONJuice Vereen · SIGNEE ★4KC Concepcion · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLDawson Jaramillo · PORTAL ★3 · OREGONDarion Rivers · SIGNEE ★3Kamen Smith · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLNoah Potter · PORTAL ★3 · CINCINNATIIsaiah Shirley · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
RBKendrick Raphael · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · NC STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
49.638 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
47.335 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
51.143 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB7979803052 OF 5 GRADED
RB51517779107 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE646464572313 OF 23 GRADED
OL717171892310 OF 23 GRADED
DL72728685159 OF 15 GRADED
LB676771100157 OF 15 GRADED
DB707074562316 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE73rd73
BLUE-CHIP RATIO27%78
RECRUITING CLASS#43 · 3/15 BC68
CLASS RANK TREND-9 · 3 CYCLES32
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 6 IN / 12 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 8th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX31%25
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
DUKEMIKE ELKO2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4242
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6666
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
NCSUDAVE DOEREN8TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6565
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3636
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESNCSU OFFENSEDUKE OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNC STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEDUKE DEFENSE NCSU QUARTERBACKSn=570% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
DUKE DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS18% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLNC STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7DUKE DEFENSE NCSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2311% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
DUKE FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS2% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBNC STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7DUKE DEFENSE NCSU RUNNING BACKSn=1021% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
DUKE FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS2% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556297%6%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TENC STATE OFFENSESECONDARYDUKE DEFENSE NCSU PASS CATCHERSn=2343% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
DUKE SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM31% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
NCSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
DUKE
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+2
−27
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
NCSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
DUKE
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
NCSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
DUKE
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS59.1%
60.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS57.0%
60.0%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.1%
1.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = NCSU, ORANGE = DUKE) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE