SAT 12:00 ET|NIPPERT STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP4|O/U50.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
32
3-9
67
43
5
65%
87
77
24.0
+125
+2.5
HOME
29
3-9
64
51
14
7%
94
70
26.5
-145
-2.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALBAY32—CIN29
CLOSED CIN -2.5TOTAL 50.5BAY COVERED · 61 POINTS · OVER
BAY
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
CIN
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 8 FIELD n=54
MARKET
TOTAL50.5
SPREADCIN -2.5
IMPLIED — BAY24.0
IMPLIED — CIN26.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
74FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT29 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 29 positions on a 54-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
BAYRECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs3.5-8.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-10.3
BAYLOR won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
CINRECORD UNDERSTATES
3-9ACTUALvs4.5-7.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-5.9
CINCINNATI won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERBAYLORCINCINNATI2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
OL87%Jacob GallOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONConnor GalvinOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGrant MillerOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB71%Alfahiym WalcottPORTAL · ARKANSAS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLorando JohnsonPORTAL · ARKANSAS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian MorganS · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB62%Qualan JonesRB · 35% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCraig WilliamsRB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTaye McWilliamsRB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL52%Siaki IkaDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaxon PlayerDL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCole MaxwellDL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE39%Ben SimsTE · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGavin HolmesWR · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB34%Dillon DoyleLB · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWill WilliamsLB · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB6%Kyron DronesPORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
OLClark Barrington · PORTAL ★4 · BYUCampbell Barrington · PORTAL ★3 · BYUIsaiah Robinson · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
DBAjani Carter · PORTAL ★3 · UTAH STATELeVar Thornton Jr. · SIGNEE ★4Tay'Shawn Wilson · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
RBDominic Richardson · PORTAL ★4 · OKLAHOMA STATEREFILLED
DLTreven Ma'ae · PORTAL ★3 · OREGONTrey Wilson · SIGNEE ★3DK Kalu · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEKetron Jackson · PORTAL ★4 · ARKANSASJake Roberts · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH TEXASMatthew Klopfenstein · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBMike Smith · PORTAL ★3 · LIBERTYByron Vaughns · PORTAL ★3 · UTAH STATECorey Kelly · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
QBSawyer Robertson · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATEINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · BAYLOR
CARRIED COMPOSITE
39.511 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
33.611 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
43.423 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4646816853 OF 5 GRADED
RB5858352465 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE555566692016 OF 20 GRADED
OL585874221810 OF 18 GRADED
DL555561701814 OF 18 GRADED
LB43436385149 OF 14 GRADED
DB464666592116 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE67th67
BLUE-CHIP RATIO12%59
RECRUITING CLASS#35 · 2/21 BC74
CLASS RANK TREND+9 · 3 CYCLES68
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 13 IN / 12 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX43%81
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
CINSCOTT SATTERFIELDFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3838
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7070
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
BAYDAVE ARANDA4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6464
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9999
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESBAY OFFENSECIN OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBBAYLOR OFFENSEFULL DEFENSECINCINNATI DEFENSE BAY QUARTERBACKSn=532% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CIN DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS38% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLBAYLOR OFFENSEFRONT-7CINCINNATI DEFENSE BAY OFFENSIVE LINEn=1878% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CIN FRONT-7n=35 · 2 ROOMS30% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBBAYLOR OFFENSEFRONT-7CINCINNATI DEFENSE BAY RUNNING BACKSn=676% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CIN FRONT-72 ROOMS · 35 PLAYERS32% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555486%11%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEBAYLOR OFFENSESECONDARYCINCINNATI DEFENSE BAY PASS CATCHERSn=2031% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CIN SECONDARYn=16 · 1 ROOM45% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
BAY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CIN
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+39
+29
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
BAY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CIN
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
BAY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CIN
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS47.7%
58.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS61.5%
49.8%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.6%
1.5%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = BAY, ORANGE = CIN) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE