SAT 12:00 ET|NAVY-MARINE CORPS MEMORIAL STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP0|O/U34.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
17
9-4
1
61
45
36%
16
31
22.5
-435
-10.5
HOME
6
5-7
1
8
67
61%
12
16
12.0
+325
+10.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALAF17—NAVY6
CLOSED AF -10.5TOTAL 34.5AF COVERED · 23 POINTS · UNDER
AF
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
NAVY
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 8 FIELD n=54
MARKET
TOTAL34.5
SPREADAF -10.5
IMPLIED — AF22.5
IMPLIED — NAVY12.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
34FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT7 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 7 positions on a 54-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
AFRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.8-3.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+9.7
AIR FORCE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NAVYRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs4.3-7.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-4.8
NAVY won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERAIR FORCENAVY2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB97%Haaziq DanielsQB · 97% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB61%Brad RobertsRB · 56% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB46%TD BlackmonLB · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONVince SanfordLB · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL43%Everett SmalleyOT · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaac CochranOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE38%Kyle PattersonTE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDavid CormierWR · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL36%Christopher HerreraDE · 36% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB30%Eian CastonguayCB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMichael Mack IICB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBJacob Kilzer · SIGNEE ★3River Lien · SIGNEE ★2PARTIAL
RBRyan Henning · SIGNEE ★3Luke Gall · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
LBBlake Fletcher · SIGNEE ★3Houston Hendrix · SIGNEE ★3Vinnie Canosa · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLLaird Wheeler · SIGNEE ★3Carson Titus · SIGNEE ★2PARTIAL
WR/TEAnthony Wenson · SIGNEE ★3Keshon Singleton · SIGNEE ★3Aidan Behymer · SIGNEE ★2PARTIAL
DLBrady Phillips · SIGNEE ★3Aiden Herring · SIGNEE ★3Charlie Gleason · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBKyle Chen · SIGNEE ★3Devin Jordan · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · AIR FORCE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
59.572 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
56.761 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
61.271 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB2424118354 OF 5 GRADED
RB444412881310 OF 13 GRADED
WR/TE585853882013 OF 20 GRADED
OL595924842822 OF 28 GRADED
DL515116881310 OF 13 GRADED
LB606025972015 OF 20 GRADED
DB626220972019 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE1st1
BLUE-CHIP RATIO0%4
RECRUITING CLASS#104 · 0/47 BC23
CLASS RANK TREND-14 · 3 CYCLES22
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 0 IN / 8 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 8th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX5%0
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NAVYBRIAN NEWBERRYFIRST SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
22
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7272
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
AFTROY CALHOUN8TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
00
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9292
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESAF OFFENSENAVY OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBAIR FORCE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSENAVY DEFENSE AF QUARTERBACKSn=517% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NAVY DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 73 PLAYERS11% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLAIR FORCE OFFENSEFRONT-7NAVY DEFENSE AF OFFENSIVE LINEn=2816% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NAVY FRONT-7n=42 · 2 ROOMS22% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBAIR FORCE OFFENSEFRONT-7NAVY DEFENSE AF RUNNING BACKSn=1313% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NAVY FRONT-72 ROOMS · 42 PLAYERS22% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555880%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEAIR FORCE OFFENSESECONDARYNAVY DEFENSE AF PASS CATCHERSn=2012% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NAVY SECONDARYn=31 · 1 ROOM1% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
AF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NAVY
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−67
−14
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
AF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NAVY
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
AF
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NAVY
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS90.4%
77.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS31.8%
46.5%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.4%
1.5%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = AF, ORANGE = NAVY) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE