SAT 15:30 ET|BRYANT-DENNY STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP11|O/U47.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
20
9-4
89
73
74
42%
71
67
19.0
+295
+9.5
HOME
34
12-2
100
89
89
40%
26
99
28.5
-375
-9.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALTENN20—ALA34
CLOSED ALA -9.5TOTAL 47.5ALA COVERED · 54 POINTS · OVER
TENN
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
ALA
TENN
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ALA
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 8 FIELD n=54
MARKET
TOTAL47.5
SPREADALA -9.5
IMPLIED — TENN19.0
IMPLIED — ALA28.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
45FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT7 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 7 positions on a 54-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
TENNRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.4-3.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+9.5
TENNESSEE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ALARECORD OVERSTATES
12-1ACTUALvs10.7-2.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+16.7
ALABAMA won 12 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 10.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTENNESSEEALABAMA2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB81%Hendon HookerQB · 79% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB63%Jeremy BanksLB · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJuwan MitchellPORTAL · COLORADO · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSolon Page IIILB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE44%Jalin HyattWR · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPrinceton FantTE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCedric TillmanWR · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL36%Darnell WrightOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJerome CarvinOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL35%Byron YoungDL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLaTrell BumphusDL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDa'Jon TerryPORTAL · OKLAHOMA · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB15%Trevon FlowersDB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB3%Justin Williams-ThomasPORTAL · CALIFORNIA · 3% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBNico Iamaleava · SIGNEE ★5PARTIAL
LBKeenan Pili · PORTAL ★4 · BYUArion Carter · SIGNEE ★4Jalen Smith · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
WR/TEDont'e Thornton Jr. · PORTAL ★4 · OREGONMcCallan Castles · PORTAL ★4 · UC DAVISNathan Leacock · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
OLJohn Campbell Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMIAndrej Karic · PORTAL ★3 · TEXASShamurad Umarov · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
DLOmarr Norman-Lott · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONA STATEDaevin Hobbs · SIGNEE ★4Caleb Herring · SIGNEE ★44 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBGabe Jeudy-Lally · PORTAL ★4 · BYUJordan Matthews · SIGNEE ★4Rickey Gibson III · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TENNESSEE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
67.289 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
64.174 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
68.991 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5959388754 OF 5 GRADED
RB7878769876 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE686883602619 OF 26 GRADED
OL656578822120 OF 21 GRADED
DL777786862218 OF 22 GRADED
LB656577811210 OF 12 GRADED
DB656581812419 OF 24 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE89th89
BLUE-CHIP RATIO39%86
RECRUITING CLASS#10 · 14/26 BC93
CLASS RANK TREND+6 · 3 CYCLES62
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 8 IN / 22 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX29%20
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ALANICK SABAN8TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5959
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TENNJOSH HEUPEL3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6969
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4949
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTENN OFFENSEALA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTENNESSEE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEALABAMA DEFENSE TENN QUARTERBACKSn=513% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ALA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 64 PLAYERS28% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTENNESSEE OFFENSEFRONT-7ALABAMA DEFENSE TENN OFFENSIVE LINEn=2118% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ALA FRONT-7n=39 · 2 ROOMS8% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTENNESSEE OFFENSEFRONT-7ALABAMA DEFENSE TENN RUNNING BACKSn=72% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ALA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 39 PLAYERS9% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557095%87%LINEBACKERSLB
0.456387%63%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETENNESSEE OFFENSESECONDARYALABAMA DEFENSE TENN PASS CATCHERSn=2640% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ALA SECONDARYn=25 · 1 ROOM44% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TENN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ALA
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TENN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ALA
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TENN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ALA
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS56.4%
66.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS61.9%
62.5%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.7%
0.9%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TENN, ORANGE = ALA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE