SAT 19:30 ET|ABC|HARD ROCK STADIUM · MIAMI GARDENS FLNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP17|O/U54.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
NDINDNOTRE DAME
12-2
91
74
69
64%
58
74
26.0
+118
+2.5
HOME
MIAACCMIAMI
10-3
74
72
62
41%
74
61
28.5
-140
-2.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2025CONSENSUS · DK FD MGM CZR
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=8
MARKET
TOTAL54.5
SPREADMIA −2.5
IMPLIED — ND26.0
IMPLIED — MIA28.5
TOTAL RANK9 / 12
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
81FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT7 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by seven positions on a twelve-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST — NEITHER SIDE SLOWS THE OTHER
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2026 · FULL SEASON
NDRECORD OVERSTATES
12-2ACTUALvs10.2-3.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.8 W
ONE-SCORE RECORD4-1
TURNOVER MARGIN / GAME+0.9
Twelve wins, a scoring profile describing ten. The market prices the record; the scoring profile is the other description of the same season.
MIARECORD MATCHES
10-3ACTUALvs10.6-2.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE−0.6 W
ONE-SCORE RECORD2-3
TURNOVER MARGIN / GAME+0.1
Ten wins against a scoring profile describing between ten and eleven. The record and the underlying performance say the same thing.
TEAM LEDGERUTAHUSC2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE52%Dalton KincaidTE · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLogan KendallTE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSolomon EnisWR · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB43%R.J. HubertS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONClark Phillips IIICB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB37%Mohamoud DiabateLB · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAndrew Mata'afaPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL34%Braeden DanielsOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPaul MailePORTAL · BYU · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB25%Tavion ThomasRB · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL21%Gabe ReidDE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TELanden King · PORTAL ★3 · AUBURNMycah Pittman · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATEEmery Simmons · PORTAL ★3 · INDIANA3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBMiles Battle · PORTAL ★4 · OLE MISSBriton Allen · PORTAL ★3 · USCCJ Blocker · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBLevani Damuni · PORTAL ★4 · STANFORDOwen Chambliss · SIGNEE ★3Johnathan Hall · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLSpencer Fano · SIGNEE ★4Caleb Lomu · SIGNEE ★4Roger Alderman · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBJohn Randle Jr. · SIGNEE ★4Mike Mitchell · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLLogan Fano · PORTAL ★4 · BYUJonah Lea'ea · SIGNEE ★3Stanley Raass · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · UTAH
CARRIED COMPOSITE
65.587 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
65.576 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
65.483 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB7777629652 OF 5 GRADED
RB48486797109 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE414154712415 OF 24 GRADED
OL464669851912 OF 19 GRADED
DL737368881812 OF 18 GRADED
LB535366591510 OF 15 GRADED
DB616178642111 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE77th77
BLUE-CHIP RATIO23%75
RECRUITING CLASS#20 · 7/20 BC86
CLASS RANK TREND+13 · 3 CYCLES76
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 8 IN / 18 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 8th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX33%35
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
USCLINCOLN RILEY2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9797
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6767
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UTAHKYLE WHITTINGHAM8TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2828
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7171
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESND OFFENSEMIA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBNOTRE DAME OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEMIAMI DEFENSE ND QUARTERBACKSn=2 · 468 OBS0% VACATED
PROJECTED
EPA/DB
EXPL
FPT/G
★
C.J. CARRQBRETUNCONTESTED
+0.2414.1%19.8★5K. MINCHEYQBRET
−0.029.4%2.1★4ATTEMPT SHARE IS SETTLED — EFFICIENCY, EXPLOSIVENESS AND FANTASY SCORING REPLACE SHARE AND USAGE AT THIS POSITION · HALF-PPR
MIA FULL DEFENSE3 ROOMS · 4,120 OBS48% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.276654%0.48LINEBACKERSLB
0.185861%0.39THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — ROOMS BLENDED BY WEIGHT, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN
▾OLNOTRE DAME OFFENSEFRONT-7MIAMI DEFENSE ND OFFENSIVE LINEn=7 · 3,110 OBS26% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
SNAP
TAL
EXP
★
A. SULLIVANOTRET
98%914 YR★4B. NELSONOGRET
94%883 YR★4R. HUFANGACLAST YR ≈
88%612 YR★3G. MERRIWEATHEROGPORTAL ★3 · PURDUE
76%583 YR★3THREE OF FIVE STARTING SPOTS RETURN · LINEMEN SCORE NO FANTASY POINTS AND CARRY NO USAGE — PEDIGREE AND EXPERIENCE CARRY THE ROOM INSTEAD
MIA FRONT-7 · PASS RUSHn=9 · 2,880 OBS42% VACATED
FRONT-7 BY PLAYING TIME
SNAP
PRSS
RSTP
★
R. WESLEYDLRET
24%12.1%68%★4F. BAINDLPORTAL ★4 · WAKE FOREST
22%14.4%61%★3W. SILVERALBLAST YR ≈
19%6.2%64%★4T. JOHNSONLBTRUE FR
11%3.1%51%★4M. OKPARADLPORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA ST
6%9.4%49%★4DEFENSIVE LINE AND LINEBACKERS BLENDED 0.60 / 0.40 · PRESSURE AND RUN-STOP ARE THE LINE'S SIDE OF THE MATCHUP
▾RBNOTRE DAME OFFENSEFRONT-7MIAMI DEFENSE ND RUNNING BACKSn=4 · 741 OBS42% VACATED
K. GREATHOUSERBTRUE FR
24%12—★4NO BACK CLEARS THE 55% CONCENTRATION MARK — CARRIES SPLIT THREE WAYS · FPT/G IS LAST SEASON'S HALF-PPR SCORING IN A DIFFERENT ROLE
MIA FRONT-7 · RUN FRONTn=9 · 2,880 OBS42% VACATED
FRONT-7 BY PLAYING TIME
SNAP
RSTP
TFL
★
R. WESLEYDLRET
24%68%8.4%★4F. BAINDLPORTAL ★4 · WAKE FOREST
22%61%9.1%★3W. SILVERALBLAST YR ≈
19%64%6.1%★4T. JOHNSONLBTRUE FR
11%51%3.2%★4M. OKPARADLPORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA ST
6%49%5.9%★4SAME FRONT-7, WEIGHTED 0.55 / 0.45 FOR THE BACKFIELD · RUN-STOP AND TACKLE-FOR-LOSS REPLACE THE PASS-RUSH COLUMN
▾WR/TENOTRE DAME OFFENSESECONDARYMIAMI DEFENSE ND PASS-CATCHERSn=7 · 1,884 OBS39% VACATED
J. FAISONWRRET
24%5810.8★4C. GREATHOUSEWRLAST YR ≈
19%346.1★4W. LOVEWRPORTAL ★3 · CALIFORNIA
16%417.9★3FOUR PLAYERS BETWEEN 16% AND 24% TARGET SHARE — NOBODY REACHES THE 45% MARK · NO RETURNING PASS-CATCHER CLEARED 11 FPT/G
MIA SECONDARYn=7 · 2,240 OBS36% VACATED
SECONDARY BY PLAYING TIME
SNAP
COV
BALL
★
O. STROUDCBPORTAL ★4 · CLEMSON
22%6674★4J. OKONKWOSTRUE FR
12%——★4THE MOST INTACT UNIT ON THIS DEFENSE — TWO STARTING CORNERS AND A SAFETY RETURN
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ND
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MIA
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION-GROUP GRADES ABOVE
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ND
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MIA
OFF EXPLOSIVENESS1.28
1.34
DEF EXPLOSIVENESS1.11
1.31
TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THE FIVE YEAR OVER YEAR AND IS WEIGHTED ACCORDINGLY IN THE STATED-FACT ORDER
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ND
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MIA
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS54.1%
44.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS81.4%
88.2%
GARBAGE-TIME SHARE9.1%
12.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY-BY-PLAY — NO CHARTED-ALIGNMENT INPUTS · PROE IS PACE-ADJUSTED · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ND, ORANGE = MIA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2026, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE