THU 19:30 ET|LANE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP7|O/U47.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
10
6-7
50
45
83
77%
45
24
22.3
+120
+2.5
HOME
38
7-6
58
64
61
65%
34
52
24.8
-142
-2.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALSYR10—VT38
CLOSED VT -2.5TOTAL 47.0VT COVERED · 48 POINTS · OVER
SYR
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
VT
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 9 FIELD n=54
MARKET
TOTAL47.0
SPREADVT -2.5
IMPLIED — SYR22.3
IMPLIED — VT24.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
40FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT5 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 5 positions on a 54-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
SYRRECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs6.5-5.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.8
SYRACUSE won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
VTRECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs7.2-4.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+4.3
VIRGINIA TECH won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSYRACUSEVIRGINIA TECH2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
OL52%Carlos VettorelloOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDakota DavisOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMatthew BergeronOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB44%Sean TuckerRB · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB42%Duce ChestnutPORTAL · LSU · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJa'Had CarterPORTAL · OHIO STATE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGarrett WilliamsDB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB37%Mikel JonesLB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJatius GeerPORTAL · SOUTH CAROLINA · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE24%Devaughn CooperWR · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCourtney JacksonPORTAL · ARKANSAS STATE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL14%Steve LintonPORTAL · TEXAS TECH · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
OLDavid Wohlabaugh · PORTAL ★3 · KENTUCKYJoe More · PORTAL ★3 · RICHMONDJayden Bass · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
RBIke Daniels · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBJaeden Gould · PORTAL ★4 · NEBRASKAJayden Bellamy · PORTAL ★3 · NOTRE DAMEJalil Martin · PORTAL ★3 · NEBRASKAREFILLED
LBZyian Moultrie-Goddard · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEDavid Clement · SIGNEE ★3Bryce Cohoon · SIGNEE ★3Darrell Gill Jr. · SIGNEEREFILLED
DLBraylen Ingraham · PORTAL ★3 · ALABAMARashard Perry · SIGNEE ★3David Omopariola · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · SYRACUSE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
58.468 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
55.055 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
60.268 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5353119444 OF 4 GRADED
RB5050579495 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE676745902114 OF 21 GRADED
OL484857781714 OF 17 GRADED
DL51514488139 OF 13 GRADED
LB5757531001711 OF 17 GRADED
DB535361701918 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE50th50
BLUE-CHIP RATIO8%46
RECRUITING CLASS#88 · 0/14 BC35
CLASS RANK TREND-31 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 7 IN / 13 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 8th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX42%79
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
VTBRENT PRY2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2525
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2424
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
SYRDINO BABERS8TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2323
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESSYR OFFENSEVT OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSYRACUSE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEVIRGINIA TECH DEFENSE SYR QUARTERBACKSn=46% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
VT DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 55 PLAYERS24% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSYRACUSE OFFENSEFRONT-7VIRGINIA TECH DEFENSE SYR OFFENSIVE LINEn=1722% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
VT FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS21% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSYRACUSE OFFENSEFRONT-7VIRGINIA TECH DEFENSE SYR RUNNING BACKSn=96% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
VT FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS20% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.558073%13%LINEBACKERSLB
0.456788%13%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESYRACUSE OFFENSESECONDARYVIRGINIA TECH DEFENSE SYR PASS CATCHERSn=2110% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
VT SECONDARYn=24 · 1 ROOM27% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
SYR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
VT
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+8
−9
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
SYR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
VT
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
SYR
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
VT
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS67.1%
59.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS58.5%
57.9%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.9%
0.3%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = SYR, ORANGE = VT) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE