SAT 12:00 ET|FBC MORTGAGE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP2|O/U58.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
41
9-4
64
70
43
35%
88
45
25.5
+210
+7.0
HOME
28
6-7
62
65
47
68%
69
51
32.5
-258
-7.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALWVU41—UCF28
CLOSED UCF -7.0TOTAL 58.0WVU COVERED · 69 POINTS · OVER
WVU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
UCF
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 9 FIELD n=54
MARKET
TOTAL58.0
SPREADUCF -7.0
IMPLIED — WVU25.5
IMPLIED — UCF32.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
63FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT0 SLOTSBoth rankings put this game in the same place on the week's board.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
WVURECORD OVERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs7.0-5.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+4.1
WEST VIRGINIA won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UCFRECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs7.7-4.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+7.1
UCF won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERWEST VIRGINIAUCF2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB78%JT DanielsPORTAL · RICE · 76% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE74%Bryce Ford-WheatonWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSam JamesWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrian PolendeyTE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL62%Dante StillsDL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan JeffersonPORTAL · LSU · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTaijh AlstonPORTAL · COLORADO · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB43%Exree LoeLB · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJasir CoxLB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB38%Tony Mathis Jr.PORTAL · HOUSTON · 38% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB29%Rashad AjayiCB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWesley McCormickCB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL14%James GmiterOL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBSean Boyle · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEDevin Carter · PORTAL ★4 · NC STATEEJ Horton · PORTAL ★3 · MARSHALLJa'Shaun Poke · PORTAL ★3 · KENT STATE4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLDavoan Hawkins · PORTAL ★3 · TENNESSEE STATEFatorma Mulbah · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATEZachariah Keith · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBJosiah Trotter · SIGNEE ★3James Heard Jr. · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBJahiem White · SIGNEE ★3DJ Oliver · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBMontre Miller · PORTAL ★4 · KENT STATEKeyshawn Cobb · PORTAL ★3 · BUFFALOAnthony Wilson · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA SOUTHERN2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLJohnny Williams IV · SIGNEE ★3Cooper Young · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · WEST VIRGINIA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
53.449 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
46.832 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
57.760 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB71717510062 OF 6 GRADED
RB5555806876 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE666673292417 OF 24 GRADED
OL707074961513 OF 15 GRADED
DL535372721914 OF 19 GRADED
LB595967721610 OF 16 GRADED
DB686843601814 OF 18 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE64th64
BLUE-CHIP RATIO11%57
RECRUITING CLASS#48 · 2/21 BC65
CLASS RANK TREND-8 · 3 CYCLES34
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 14 IN / 22 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX39%64
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UCFGUS MALZAHN3TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2121
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7979
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
WVUNEAL BROWN5TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1616
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9797
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESWVU OFFENSEUCF OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBWEST VIRGINIA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEUCF DEFENSE WVU QUARTERBACKSn=60% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UCF DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS25% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLWEST VIRGINIA OFFENSEFRONT-7UCF DEFENSE WVU OFFENSIVE LINEn=154% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UCF FRONT-7n=34 · 2 ROOMS13% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBWEST VIRGINIA OFFENSEFRONT-7UCF DEFENSE WVU RUNNING BACKSn=732% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UCF FRONT-72 ROOMS · 34 PLAYERS13% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555885%21%LINEBACKERSLB
0.454991%13%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEWEST VIRGINIA OFFENSESECONDARYUCF DEFENSE WVU PASS CATCHERSn=2471% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UCF SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM34% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
WVU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UCF
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−9
+3
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
WVU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UCF
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
WVU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UCF
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS66.4%
63.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS47.0%
57.1%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.8%
4.7%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = WVU, ORANGE = UCF) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE