SAT 14:00 ET|CARTER-FINLEY STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP24|O/U44.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
17
9-4
97
78
99
55%
99
83
27.3
-350
-10.0
HOME
24
9-4
73
52
91
39%
48
66
17.3
+275
+10.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALCLEM17—NCSU24
CLOSED CLEM -10.0TOTAL 44.5NCSU COVERED · 41 POINTS · UNDER
CLEM
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
NCSU
CLEM
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
NCSU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 9 FIELD n=54
MARKET
TOTAL44.5
SPREADCLEM -10.0
IMPLIED — CLEM27.3
IMPLIED — NCSU17.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
38FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT1 SLOTThe two rankings disagree by 1 position on a 54-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
CLEMRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.5-3.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+9.3
CLEMSON won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NCSURECORD OVERSTATES
9-3ACTUALvs8.0-4.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+6.7
NC STATE won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERCLEMSONNC STATE2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB78%DJ UiagaleleiPORTAL · OREGON STATE · 77% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE50%Davis AllenTE · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoseph NgataWR · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONE.J. Williams Jr.PORTAL · INDIANA · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL50%K.J. HenryDE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMyles MurphyDE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBryan BreseeDT · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB41%Trenton SimpsonLB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeith MaguireLB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKevin SwintPORTAL · GEORGIA STATE · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL19%Jordan McFaddenOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB7%Kobe PacePORTAL · VIRGINIA · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB5%Fred Davis IIDB · 4% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBChristopher Vizzina · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
WR/TENoble Johnson · SIGNEE ★4Olsen Patt-Henry · SIGNEE ★4Markus Dixon · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DLPeter Woods · SIGNEE ★5T.J. Parker · SIGNEE ★4Vic Burley · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBJamal Anderson · SIGNEE ★4Dee Crayton · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLHarris Sewell · SIGNEE ★4Zack Owens · SIGNEE ★4Ian Reed · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
RBJarvis Green · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DBAvieon Terrell · SIGNEE ★4Branden Strozier · SIGNEE ★4Rob Billings IV · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · CLEMSON
CARRIED COMPOSITE
68.693 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
71.484 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
66.887 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB7272979763 OF 6 GRADED
RB575791981110 OF 11 GRADED
WR/TE545473632617 OF 26 GRADED
OL626290902422 OF 24 GRADED
DL656594732216 OF 22 GRADED
LB77778994106 OF 10 GRADED
DB777788662818 OF 28 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE97th97
BLUE-CHIP RATIO67%96
RECRUITING CLASS#11 · 19/26 BC92
CLASS RANK TREND-6 · 3 CYCLES38
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 1 IN / 11 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 8th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX46%89
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NCSUDAVE DOEREN8TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6767
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1616
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
CLEMDABO SWINNEY8TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8484
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2626
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESCLEM OFFENSENCSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBCLEMSON OFFENSEFULL DEFENSENC STATE DEFENSE CLEM QUARTERBACKSn=63% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NCSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS28% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLCLEMSON OFFENSEFRONT-7NC STATE DEFENSE CLEM OFFENSIVE LINEn=2410% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NCSU FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS9% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBCLEMSON OFFENSEFRONT-7NC STATE DEFENSE CLEM RUNNING BACKSn=112% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NCSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS8% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557285%40%LINEBACKERSLB
0.4567100%13%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TECLEMSON OFFENSESECONDARYNC STATE DEFENSE CLEM PASS CATCHERSn=2637% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NCSU SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM44% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
CLEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NCSU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+14
+2
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
CLEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NCSU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
CLEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NCSU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS55.5%
59.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS63.1%
57.0%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.3%
0.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = CLEM, ORANGE = NCSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE