SAT 15:30 ET|MCLANE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP10|O/U46.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
30
7-6
57
54
80
64%
4
92
24.8
-150
-3.0
HOME
18
3-9
67
43
5
65%
87
77
21.8
+130
+3.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALISU30—BAY18
CLOSED ISU -3.0TOTAL 46.5ISU COVERED · 48 POINTS · OVER
ISU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
BAY
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 9 FIELD n=54
MARKET
TOTAL46.5
SPREADISU -3.0
IMPLIED — ISU24.8
IMPLIED — BAY21.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
60FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT25 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 25 positions on a 54-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
ISURECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs7.3-4.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+4.6
IOWA STATE won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
BAYRECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs3.5-8.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-10.3
BAYLOR won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERIOWA STATEBAYLOR2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DL65%Will McDonald IVDE · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaiah LeeDL · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMJ AndersonDL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB59%Jirehl BrockRB · 38% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeon SilasPORTAL · RHODE ISLAND · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB59%O'Rien VanceLB · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONColby ReederLB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKendell JacksonLB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE37%Xavier HutchinsonWR · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJared RusTE · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB32%Anthony Johnson Jr.DB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTayvonn KylePORTAL · VIRGINIA · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMason ChambersPORTAL · INCARNATE WORD · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL23%Trevor DowningOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB1%Ashton CookQB · <1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DLSamuel Same · SIGNEE ★3Trevor Buhr · SIGNEE ★3David Caulker · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
RBArlen Harris Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · STANFORDAbu Sama III · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBZachary Lovett · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURIJack Sadowsky V · SIGNEE ★3JJ Jean-Louis · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEKai Black · SIGNEE ★3Ben Brahmer · SIGNEE ★3Beni Ngoyi · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBNorris Davis · SIGNEE ★3Ta'Shawn James · SIGNEE ★3Drew Surges · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLBrendan Black · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
QBJJ Kohl · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · IOWA STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
58.068 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
66.277 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
51.444 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6060989652 OF 5 GRADED
RB4545755785 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE686875632612 OF 26 GRADED
OL484871882111 OF 21 GRADED
DL484872861911 OF 19 GRADED
LB505056711915 OF 19 GRADED
DB646464872417 OF 24 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE57th57
BLUE-CHIP RATIO7%40
RECRUITING CLASS#42 · 1/26 BC69
CLASS RANK TREND+17 · 3 CYCLES84
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 2 IN / 12 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 8th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX47%93
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
BAYDAVE ARANDA4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6464
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9999
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ISUMATT CAMPBELL8TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6464
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3636
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESISU OFFENSEBAY OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBIOWA STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEBAYLOR DEFENSE ISU QUARTERBACKSn=54% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BAY DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS33% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLIOWA STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7BAYLOR DEFENSE ISU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2112% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BAY FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS24% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBIOWA STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7BAYLOR DEFENSE ISU RUNNING BACKSn=843% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BAY FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS23% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555570%6%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEIOWA STATE OFFENSESECONDARYBAYLOR DEFENSE ISU PASS CATCHERSn=2637% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BAY SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM41% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ISU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BAY
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−17
+39
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ISU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BAY
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ISU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BAY
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS59.2%
47.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS65.6%
61.5%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.4%
2.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ISU, ORANGE = BAY) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE