SAT 15:30 ET|DKR-TEXAS MEMORIAL STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP49|O/U50.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
6
5-7
47
23
59
29%
16
89
15.8
+750
+18.5
HOME
35
12-2
96
74
88
61%
73
87
34.3
-1200
-18.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALBYU6—TEX35
CLOSED TEX -18.5TOTAL 50.0TEX COVERED · 41 POINTS · UNDER
BYU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
TEX
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 9 FIELD n=54
MARKET
TOTAL50.0
SPREADTEX -18.5
IMPLIED — BYU15.8
IMPLIED — TEX34.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
45FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT11 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 11 positions on a 54-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
BYURECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs4.2-7.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-6.8
BYU won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEXRECORD MATCHES
12-1ACTUALvs11.0-2.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+18.6
TEXAS won 12 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 11.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERBYUTEXAS2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Jaren HallQB · 100% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB78%Christopher BrooksRB · 43% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLopini KatoaRB · 32% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB48%Gabe Jeudy-LallyPORTAL · TENNESSEE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKaleb HayesDB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIOND'Angelo MandellDB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL46%Lorenzo FauateaDL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPepe TanuvasaDL · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEarl Tuioti-MarinerDL · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB41%Keenan PiliPORTAL · TENNESSEE · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPayton WilgarLB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE33%Brayden CosperWR · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMasen WakeTE · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPuka NacuaWR · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL20%Blake FreelandOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBKedon Slovis · PORTAL ★3 · PITTSBURGHREFILLED
RBAidan Robbins · PORTAL ★4 · UNLVDeion Smith · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADOLJ Martin · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DBEddie Heckard · PORTAL ★4 · WEBER STATEKamden Garrett · PORTAL ★3 · WEBER STATEDylan Flowers · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTHERN UTAHREFILLED
DLJackson Cravens · PORTAL ★3 · BOISE STATEIsaiah Bagnah · PORTAL ★3 · BOISE STATEHunter Clegg · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBHarrison Taggart · PORTAL ★4 · OREGONAJ Vongphachanh · PORTAL ★3 · UTAH STATEREFILLED
WR/TEDarius Lassiter · PORTAL ★3 · EASTERN MICHIGANJackson Bowers · SIGNEE ★4Jojo Phillips · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
OLCaleb Etienne · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEPaul Maile · PORTAL ★3 · UTAHIan Fitzgerald · PORTAL ★3 · MISSOURI STATE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · BYU
CARRIED COMPOSITE
49.035 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
39.519 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
54.351 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB626290062 OF 6 GRADED
RB484871796 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE585840682415 OF 24 GRADED
OL5858730198 OF 19 GRADED
DL343440611514 OF 15 GRADED
LB353571451813 OF 18 GRADED
DB515154492316 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE47th47
BLUE-CHIP RATIO9%53
RECRUITING CLASS#66 · 3/21 BC51
CLASS RANK TREND+5 · 3 CYCLES60
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 20 IN / 21 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 8th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX43%81
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TEXSTEVE SARKISIAN3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7676
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4242
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
BYUKALANI SITAKE8TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5454
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7979
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESBYU OFFENSETEX OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBBYU OFFENSEFULL DEFENSETEXAS DEFENSE BYU QUARTERBACKSn=6100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEX DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS23% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLBYU OFFENSEFRONT-7TEXAS DEFENSE BYU OFFENSIVE LINEn=19100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEX FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS14% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBBYU OFFENSEFRONT-7TEXAS DEFENSE BYU RUNNING BACKSn=993% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEX FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS15% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.557188%71%LINEBACKERSLB
0.456982%47%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEBYU OFFENSESECONDARYTEXAS DEFENSE BYU PASS CATCHERSn=2432% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEX SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM30% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
BYU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TEX
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
BYU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TEX
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
BYU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TEX
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS48.0%
55.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS60.2%
62.3%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.3%
1.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = BYU, ORANGE = TEX) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE