SAT 19:00 ET|BOBCAT STADIUM (TX)CONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP5|O/U53.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
31
11-3
27
39
84
56%
61
27
29.8
-265
-6.0
HOME
13
8-5
32
83
3
47%
93
42
23.8
+215
+6.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALTROY31—TXST13
CLOSED TROY -6.0TOTAL 53.5TROY COVERED · 44 POINTS · UNDER
TROY
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
TXST
TROY
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
TXST
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 9 FIELD n=54
MARKET
TOTAL53.5
SPREADTROY -6.0
IMPLIED — TROY29.8
IMPLIED — TXST23.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
66FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT12 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 12 positions on a 54-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
TROYRECORD MATCHES
11-2ACTUALvs10.5-2.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+14.0
TROY won 11 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 10.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TXSTRECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs6.4-5.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+2.2
TEXAS STATE won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTROYTEXAS STATE2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
OL59%Austin StidhamOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJake AndrewsOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeandre ButlerOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL48%Will CholohDT · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONShakel BrownDT · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAntonio ShowersDE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB47%Carlton MartialLB · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKJ RobertsonLB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB41%Craig Slocum Jr.S · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTJ HarrisS · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB36%DK BillingsleyRB · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE30%Tez JohnsonPORTAL · OREGON · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMichael VicePORTAL · SAMFORD · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAJ LewisPORTAL · ALABAMA STATE · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB17%Jarret DoegeQB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
OLColby Smith · PORTAL ★3 · AUBURNEli Russ · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATETyler Bell · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLMalaki Pegues · SIGNEE ★3Ty'Quarius Perry · SIGNEEPARTIAL
LBChris Rodgers · SIGNEE ★3Keyshawn Campbell · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBReggie Bracy · PORTAL ★3 · IOWAJack Tchienchou · SIGNEE ★3LJ Green · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBAsa Martin · PORTAL ★3 · MEMPHISREFILLED
WR/TEChris Lewis · PORTAL ★4 · KENTUCKYLandon Parker · PORTAL ★2 · WOFFORDJackson Thomas · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBJarret Doege · PORTAL ★3 · WESTERN KENTUCKYWill Crowder · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIAJD Sherrod · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TROY
CARRIED COMPOSITE
47.831 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
35.214 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
54.452 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4545419652 OF 5 GRADED
RB56566689106 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE565666652214 OF 22 GRADED
OL555542582012 OF 20 GRADED
DL727249741511 OF 15 GRADED
LB676728901612 OF 16 GRADED
DB595945762517 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE27th27
BLUE-CHIP RATIO6%34
RECRUITING CLASS#94 · 0/19 BC30
CLASS RANK TREND+10 · 3 CYCLES70
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 8 IN / 9 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX44%85
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TXSTG.J. KINNEFIRST SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4242
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8888
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TROYJON SUMRALL2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4848
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4646
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTROY OFFENSETXST OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTROY OFFENSEFULL DEFENSETEXAS STATE DEFENSE TROY QUARTERBACKSn=54% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TXST DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS64% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTROY OFFENSEFRONT-7TEXAS STATE DEFENSE TROY OFFENSIVE LINEn=2042% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TXST FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS54% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTROY OFFENSEFRONT-7TEXAS STATE DEFENSE TROY RUNNING BACKSn=1011% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TXST FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS53% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556341%5%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETROY OFFENSESECONDARYTEXAS STATE DEFENSE TROY PASS CATCHERSn=2235% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TXST SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM72% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TROY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TXST
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−57
−16
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TROY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TXST
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TROY
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TXST
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS59.0%
59.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS71.6%
64.6%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.6%
0.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TROY, ORANGE = TXST) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE