SAT 19:30 ET|CAMP RANDALL STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP20|O/U48.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
24
11-2
99
93
96
64%
38
67
31.3
-650
-14.5
HOME
10
7-6
79
41
72
57%
77
40
16.8
+450
+14.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALOSU24—WIS10
CLOSED OSU -14.5TOTAL 48.0WIS COVERED · 34 POINTS · UNDER
OSU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
WIS
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 9 FIELD n=54
MARKET
TOTAL48.0
SPREADOSU -14.5
IMPLIED — OSU31.3
IMPLIED — WIS16.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
49FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT13 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 13 positions on a 54-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
OSURECORD MATCHES
11-1ACTUALvs11.2-0.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+21.8
OHIO STATE won 11 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 11.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
WISRECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs7.3-4.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+3.9
WISCONSIN won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEROHIO STATEWISCONSIN2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB95%C.J. StroudQB · 95% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL53%Luke WyplerOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONParis Johnson Jr.OL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDawand JonesOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB50%Ronnie HickmanS · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTanner McCalisterS · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJK JohnsonDB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL45%Taron VincentDT · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZach HarrisonDE · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJavontae Jean-BaptistePORTAL · NOTRE DAME · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE10%Mitch RossiTE · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB3%Palaie Gaoteote IVLB · 3% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBLincoln Kienholz · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
OLJosh Simmons · PORTAL ★4 · SAN DIEGO STATELuke Montgomery · SIGNEE ★4Joshua Padilla · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
DBDavison Igbinosun · PORTAL ★4 · OLE MISSJa'Had Carter · PORTAL ★4 · SYRACUSEJermaine Mathews Jr. · SIGNEE ★44 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLTywone Malone · PORTAL ★3 · OLE MISSJason Moore · SIGNEE ★4Joshua Mickens · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TELorenzo Styles · PORTAL ★4 · NOTRE DAMEBrandon Inniss · SIGNEE ★5Noah Rogers · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
LBArvell Reese · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
RBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · OHIO STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
64.084 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
74.088 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
57.761 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5959959463 OF 6 GRADED
RB5050959584 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE636393912615 OF 26 GRADED
OL737391612112 OF 21 GRADED
DL565692962017 OF 20 GRADED
LB35359399115 OF 11 GRADED
DB666693662114 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE99th99
BLUE-CHIP RATIO82%99
RECRUITING CLASS#5 · 19/24 BC97
CLASS RANK TREND-3 · 3 CYCLES44
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+1 · 8 IN / 9 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX19%5
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
WISLUKE FICKELLFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5252
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2525
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
OSURYAN DAY5TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8181
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6565
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESOSU OFFENSEWIS OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBOHIO STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEWISCONSIN DEFENSE OSU QUARTERBACKSn=66% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WIS DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 55 PLAYERS17% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLOHIO STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7WISCONSIN DEFENSE OSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2139% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WIS FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS8% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBOHIO STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7WISCONSIN DEFENSE OSU RUNNING BACKSn=85% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WIS FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS8% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554293%6%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEOHIO STATE OFFENSESECONDARYWISCONSIN DEFENSE OSU PASS CATCHERSn=269% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
WIS SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM25% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
OSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WIS
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
OSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WIS
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
OSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
WIS
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS58.5%
55.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS74.2%
72.2%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.1%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = OSU, ORANGE = WIS) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE