SAT 22:30 ET|VALLEY CHILDREN'S STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP30|O/U57.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
24
9-5
14
57
8
62%
64
38
25.0
+330
+7.5
HOME
31
9-4
44
26
36
17%
69
22
32.5
-425
-7.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALUNLV24—FRES31
CLOSED FRES -7.5TOTAL 57.5UNLV COVERED · 55 POINTS · UNDER
UNLV
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
FRES
UNLV
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
FRES
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 9 FIELD n=54
MARKET
TOTAL57.5
SPREADFRES -7.5
IMPLIED — UNLV25.0
IMPLIED — FRES32.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
62FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT4 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 4 positions on a 54-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
UNLVRECORD MATCHES
9-4ACTUALvs8.3-4.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+7.3
UNLV won 9 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 8.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
FRESRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs7.4-4.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.3
FRESNO STATE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERUNLVFRESNO STATE2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB73%Aidan RobbinsPORTAL · BYU · 73% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL66%Preston NicholsPORTAL · PURDUE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDaviyon McDanielOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLeif FautanuPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB61%Austin AjiakeLB · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKyle BeaudryLB · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL59%Adam Plant Jr.DL · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEliel EhimareDL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTavis MalakiusDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE42%Kyle WilliamsPORTAL · WASHINGTON STATE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNick WilliamsWR · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJeff WeimerWR · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB22%Nohl WilliamsPORTAL · CALIFORNIA · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB16%Harrison BaileyPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBVincent Davis · PORTAL ★3 · PITTSBURGHDarrien Jones · SIGNEE ★3Jai'den Thomas · SIGNEEREFILLED
OLJalen St. John · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSASJack Hasz · PORTAL ★2 · BUFFALOEd Haynes · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBZavier Carter · PORTAL ★4 · LSUBam Amina · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADO STATEJackson Woodard · PORTAL ★2 · ARKANSAS1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLLucas Conti · SIGNEE ★3Maxwell Peterson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TERashawn Jackson · SIGNEEDeAngelo Irvin Jr. · SIGNEECharlie Williams · SIGNEE1 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DBJalen Frazier · PORTAL ★3 · NC STATEJaxen Turner · PORTAL ★3 · ARIZONACameren Jenkins · SIGNEEREFILLED
QBBo Edmundson · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · UNLV
CARRIED COMPOSITE
51.843 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
45.229 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
55.355 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB7676851552 OF 5 GRADED
RB4545501775 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE626244692113 OF 21 GRADED
OL545439561811 OF 18 GRADED
DL414127611813 OF 18 GRADED
LB39393260118 OF 11 GRADED
DB343447542217 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE14th14
BLUE-CHIP RATIO2%19
RECRUITING CLASS#136 · 0/15 BC0
CLASS RANK TREND-68 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 9 IN / 18 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
DEV TRANSITION MIX26%12
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
FRESJEFF TEDFORD2TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9898
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UNLVBARRY ODOMFIRST SEASON3 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2323
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3030
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUNLV OFFENSEFRES OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBUNLV OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEFRESNO STATE DEFENSE UNLV QUARTERBACKSn=585% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FRES DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS21% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLUNLV OFFENSEFRONT-7FRESNO STATE DEFENSE UNLV OFFENSIVE LINEn=1844% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FRES FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS14% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBUNLV OFFENSEFRONT-7FRESNO STATE DEFENSE UNLV RUNNING BACKSn=783% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FRES FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS14% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554583%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEUNLV OFFENSESECONDARYFRESNO STATE DEFENSE UNLV PASS CATCHERSn=2131% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FRES SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM27% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UNLV
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FRES
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−44
−13
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UNLV
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FRES
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UNLV
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FRES
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS64.0%
43.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS62.2%
71.7%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.8%
0.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UNLV, ORANGE = FRES) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE