THU 19:30 ET|WALLACE WADE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP2|O/U41.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
21
4-8
50
48
62
41%
38
73
17.0
+220
+7.0
HOME
24
8-5
52
78
82
99%
8
34
24.0
-270
-7.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALWAKE21—DUKE24
CLOSED DUKE -7.0TOTAL 41.0WAKE COVERED · 45 POINTS · OVER
WAKE
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
DUKE
WAKE
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
DUKE
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 10 FIELD n=62
MARKET
TOTAL41.0
SPREADDUKE -7.0
IMPLIED — WAKE17.0
IMPLIED — DUKE24.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
38FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT3 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 3 positions on a 62-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
WAKERECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.0-8.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-6.9
WAKE FOREST won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
DUKERECORD UNDERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs8.3-3.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+8.0
DUKE won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERWAKE FORESTDUKE2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB90%Sam HartmanPORTAL · NOTRE DAME · 90% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL66%Dion Bergan Jr.DL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKobie TurnerDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyler WilliamsDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL51%Loic Ngassam NyaOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSean MaginnOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJe'Vionte' NashOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE46%Blake WhiteheartTE · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONA.T. PerryWR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaeger BullTE · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB46%Christian TurnerPORTAL · INDIANA · 32% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONQuinton CooleyPORTAL · LIBERTY · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB39%Ryan Smenda Jr.LB · 39% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB38%Isaiah WingfieldDB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGavin HolmesPORTAL · TEXAS · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJ.J. RobertsPORTAL · MARSHALL · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBCharlie Gilliam · SIGNEE ★3Tyler Mizzell · SIGNEEPARTIAL
DLBryce Ganious · PORTAL ★3 · VILLANOVAKerrington Lee · SIGNEE ★3Chris Marable Jr. · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLDevin McRae · SIGNEE ★3Kyland Armstrong · SIGNEE ★3Uber Ajongo · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEWalker Merrill · PORTAL ★3 · TENNESSEEMicah Mays Jr. · SIGNEE ★4Deuce Alexander · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBJaquez Keyes · SIGNEE ★3Drew Pickett · SIGNEE ★3David Egbe · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBJacob Roberts · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINA A&TAiden Hall · SIGNEE ★3Brooks Yurachek · SIGNEEREFILLED
DBAntonio Robinson · SIGNEE ★3Rushaun Tongue · SIGNEE ★3Travon West · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · WAKE FOREST
CARRIED COMPOSITE
45.923 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
42.423 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
48.036 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4040699463 OF 6 GRADED
RB4848658184 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE505062942714 OF 27 GRADED
OL525259762113 OF 21 GRADED
DL575750842113 OF 21 GRADED
LB65656451125 OF 12 GRADED
DB585852802515 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE50th50
BLUE-CHIP RATIO8%46
RECRUITING CLASS#53 · 1/22 BC61
CLASS RANK TREND+13 · 3 CYCLES76
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-3 · 3 IN / 11 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 8th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX47%92
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
DUKEMIKE ELKO2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3535
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2929
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
WAKEDAVE CLAWSON8TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6262
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5656
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESWAKE OFFENSEDUKE OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBWAKE FOREST OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEDUKE DEFENSE WAKE QUARTERBACKSn=66% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
DUKE DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS18% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLWAKE FOREST OFFENSEFRONT-7DUKE DEFENSE WAKE OFFENSIVE LINEn=2124% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
DUKE FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS2% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBWAKE FOREST OFFENSEFRONT-7DUKE DEFENSE WAKE RUNNING BACKSn=819% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
DUKE FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS2% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556297%6%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEWAKE FOREST OFFENSESECONDARYDUKE DEFENSE WAKE PASS CATCHERSn=276% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
DUKE SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM31% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
WAKE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
DUKE
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+20
−27
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
WAKE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
DUKE
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
WAKE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
DUKE
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS63.0%
60.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS67.9%
60.0%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.8%
1.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = WAKE, ORANGE = DUKE) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE