SAT 14:00 ET|SCOTT STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP22|O/U56.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
45
7-6
74
87
48
37%
53
84
27.5
+105
+1.0
HOME
17
3-9
53
56
60
21%
84
83
28.5
-125
-1.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALGT45—UVA17
CLOSED UVA -1.0TOTAL 56.0GT COVERED · 62 POINTS · OVER
GT
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
UVA
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 10 FIELD n=62
MARKET
TOTAL56.0
SPREADUVA -1.0
IMPLIED — GT27.5
IMPLIED — UVA28.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
64FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT8 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 8 positions on a 62-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
GTRECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs6.2-5.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+0.7
GEORGIA TECH won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UVARECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs3.5-8.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-5
POINT MARGIN / GAME-10.5
VIRGINIA won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERGEORGIA TECHVIRGINIA2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB90%Ayinde EleyLB · 47% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCharlie ThomasLB · 41% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB79%Jeff SimsPORTAL · NEBRASKA · 50% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZach GibsonQB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE61%Nate McCollumPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMalachi CarterWR · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONE.J. JenkinsWR · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB59%Hassan HallRB · 46% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDylan McDuffiePORTAL · KANSAS · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL28%Keion WhiteDL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAkelo StonePORTAL · OLE MISS · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB23%Zamari WaltonPORTAL · OLE MISS · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL23%Pierce QuickOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPaula VaipuluPORTAL · NORTH TEXAS · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBBraelen Oliver · PORTAL ★3 · MINNESOTAAndre White Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS A&MTaye Seymore · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
QBHaynes King · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS A&MREFILLED
WR/TEAbdul Janneh · PORTAL ★3 · DUQUESNEChristian Leary · PORTAL ★3 · ALABAMABrett Seither · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA5 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBTrevion Cooley · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISVILLEEvan Dickens · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLEtinosa Reuben · PORTAL ★3 · CLEMSONShymeik Jones · SIGNEE ★3Ezra Odinjor · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DBNico Dowdell · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLJordan Brown · PORTAL ★3 · CHARLOTTEGabe Fortson · SIGNEE ★3Ben Galloway · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · GEORGIA TECH
CARRIED COMPOSITE
57.065 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
46.231 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
62.676 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB757545262 OF 6 GRADED
RB5656602684 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE626265512214 OF 22 GRADED
OL727276681611 OF 16 GRADED
DL464658901912 OF 19 GRADED
LB52526541157 OF 15 GRADED
DB535375982114 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE74th74
BLUE-CHIP RATIO22%74
RECRUITING CLASS#62 · 0/21 BC54
CLASS RANK TREND-15 · 3 CYCLES20
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-3 · 16 IN / 20 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX34%44
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UVATONY ELLIOTT2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6868
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3535
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
GTBRENT KEY2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4141
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4040
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESGT OFFENSEUVA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBGEORGIA TECH OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEVIRGINIA DEFENSE GT QUARTERBACKSn=698% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UVA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 60 PLAYERS34% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLGEORGIA TECH OFFENSEFRONT-7VIRGINIA DEFENSE GT OFFENSIVE LINEn=1632% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UVA FRONT-7n=41 · 2 ROOMS24% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBGEORGIA TECH OFFENSEFRONT-7VIRGINIA DEFENSE GT RUNNING BACKSn=874% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UVA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 41 PLAYERS25% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553785%11%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEGEORGIA TECH OFFENSESECONDARYVIRGINIA DEFENSE GT PASS CATCHERSn=2249% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UVA SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM43% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
GT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UVA
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+22
+30
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
GT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UVA
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
GT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UVA
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS62.2%
54.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS70.7%
65.4%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.6%
2.2%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = GT, ORANGE = UVA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE