SAT 15:30 ET|MCLANE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP2|O/U58.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
25
4-8
65
13
30
23%
31
54
28.0
+145
+2.5
HOME
24
3-9
67
43
5
65%
87
94
30.5
-170
-2.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALHOU25—BAY24
CLOSED BAY -2.5TOTAL 58.5HOU COVERED · 49 POINTS · UNDER
HOU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
BAY
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 10 FIELD n=62
MARKET
TOTAL58.5
SPREADBAY -2.5
IMPLIED — HOU28.0
IMPLIED — BAY30.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
62FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT4 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 4 positions on a 62-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
HOURECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.0-8.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-7.8
HOUSTON won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
BAYRECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs3.5-8.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-10.3
BAYLOR won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERHOUSTONBAYLOR2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB99%Clayton TuneQB · 99% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB77%Art GreenDB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGervarrius OwensDB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJayce RogersDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE46%Nathaniel DellWR · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeSean CarterWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB44%Donavan MutinLB · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMannie NunneryPORTAL · FLORIDA · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL43%D'Anthony JonesDL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAtlias BellDL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJamykal NealDL · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL37%Cam'Ron JohnsonPORTAL · MISSOURI · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLance RobinsonPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB31%Ta'Zhawn HenryRB · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBDonovan Smith · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS TECHREFILLED
DBMalik Fleming · PORTAL ★3 · EAST CAROLINAAdari Haulcy · PORTAL ★3 · NEW MEXICOBrian George · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS A&M4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEStephon Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATEJoshua Cobbs · PORTAL ★3 · WYOMINGJonah Wilson · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBIsh Harris · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS A&MDavid Ugwoegbu · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMAAubrey Smith · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADO1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLJalen Hunt · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATEJustin Benton · SIGNEE ★3Jett Runion · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLJaylen Garth · PORTAL ★3 · TEXASPARTIAL
RBTony Mathis · PORTAL ★3 · WEST VIRGINIAParker Jenkins · SIGNEE ★4Sergio Snider · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · HOUSTON
CARRIED COMPOSITE
34.96 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
31.810 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
36.812 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB515178072 OF 7 GRADED
RB43434435104 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE494959622314 OF 23 GRADED
OL434355891613 OF 16 GRADED
DL585877741815 OF 18 GRADED
LB454562971410 OF 14 GRADED
DB515181222213 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE65th65
BLUE-CHIP RATIO15%63
RECRUITING CLASS#55 · 3/18 BC59
CLASS RANK TREND+26 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 20 IN / 21 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX34%44
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
BAYDAVE ARANDA4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6464
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9999
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
HOUDANA HOLGORSEN5TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9292
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7474
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESHOU OFFENSEBAY OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBHOUSTON OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEBAYLOR DEFENSE HOU QUARTERBACKSn=7100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BAY DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS33% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLHOUSTON OFFENSEFRONT-7BAYLOR DEFENSE HOU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1611% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BAY FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS24% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBHOUSTON OFFENSEFRONT-7BAYLOR DEFENSE HOU RUNNING BACKSn=1065% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BAY FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS23% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555570%6%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEHOUSTON OFFENSESECONDARYBAYLOR DEFENSE HOU PASS CATCHERSn=2338% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
BAY SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM41% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
HOU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BAY
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+35
+39
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
HOU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BAY
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
HOU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
BAY
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS49.7%
47.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS72.5%
61.5%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.1%
2.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = HOU, ORANGE = BAY) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE