SAT 12:00 ET|RAYMOND JAMES STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP11|O/U69.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
23
3-9
42
15
15
76%
74
26
31.3
+235
+7.0
HOME
27
7-6
53
29
19
46%
100
22
38.3
-285
-7.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALTEM23—USF27
CLOSED USF -7.0TOTAL 69.5TEM COVERED · 50 POINTS · UNDER
TEM
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
USF
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 11 FIELD n=64
MARKET
TOTAL69.5
SPREADUSF -7.0
IMPLIED — TEM31.3
IMPLIED — USF38.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
62FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT16 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 16 positions on a 64-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
TEMRECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs2.7-9.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-14.6
TEMPLE won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
USFRECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs5.1-6.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME-4.1
SOUTH FLORIDA won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTEMPLESOUTH FLORIDA2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DL55%Darian VarnerPORTAL · WISCONSIN · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONXach GillDL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen SatchellPORTAL · OLD DOMINION · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL39%Isaac MooreOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAdam KleinOL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE32%Jose BarbonWR · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAdonicas SandersWR · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB19%Jalen WareS · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB16%Jakari NorwoodRB · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB15%Kobe WilsonPORTAL · SMU · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DLAllan Haye · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMIK.J. Miles · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA TECHDavion Hood · PORTAL ★2 · EAST TENNESSEE STATE2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLKevin Terry · SIGNEE ★3Eric King · SIGNEE ★3Luke Watson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
WR/TEDante Wright · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADO STATELandon Morris · PORTAL ★3 · UTAHPeter Clarke · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBTywan Francis · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADO STATEKamar Wilcoxson · PORTAL ★4 · FLORIDAKaleb Barnett · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBEJ Wilson · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA INTERNATIONALJoquez Smith · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
LBDiwun Black · PORTAL ★4 · FLORIDATyrese Whitaker · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TEMPLE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
72.896 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
74.590 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
71.895 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB7373509653 OF 5 GRADED
RB5050547664 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE494940702413 OF 24 GRADED
OL404037651711 OF 17 GRADED
DL434367411210 OF 12 GRADED
LB444436891410 OF 14 GRADED
DB363644692314 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE42nd42
BLUE-CHIP RATIO6%38
RECRUITING CLASS#85 · 0/27 BC37
CLASS RANK TREND+20 · 3 CYCLES90
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+2 · 11 IN / 28 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX29%17
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
USFALEX GOLESHFIRST SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4949
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8080
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TEMSTAN DRAYTON2TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8989
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8484
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTEM OFFENSEUSF OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTEMPLE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSESOUTH FLORIDA DEFENSE TEM QUARTERBACKSn=54% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USF DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERS28% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTEMPLE OFFENSEFRONT-7SOUTH FLORIDA DEFENSE TEM OFFENSIVE LINEn=1735% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USF FRONT-7n=27 · 2 ROOMS26% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTEMPLE OFFENSEFRONT-7SOUTH FLORIDA DEFENSE TEM RUNNING BACKSn=624% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USF FRONT-72 ROOMS · 27 PLAYERS25% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554365%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETEMPLE OFFENSESECONDARYSOUTH FLORIDA DEFENSE TEM PASS CATCHERSn=2430% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
USF SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM30% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USF
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+35
+16
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USF
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TEM
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
USF
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS45.7%
56.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS78.5%
56.1%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE3.5%
1.2%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TEM, ORANGE = USF) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE