SAT 15:30 ET|DOAK CAMPBELL STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP6|O/U50.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
20
7-6
92
83
78
66%
62
56
18.0
+450
+14.5
HOME
27
13-1
86
79
100
79%
43
84
32.5
-650
-14.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALMIA20—FSU27
CLOSED FSU -14.5TOTAL 50.5MIA COVERED · 47 POINTS · UNDER
MIA
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
FSU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 11 FIELD n=64
MARKET
TOTAL50.5
SPREADFSU -14.5
IMPLIED — MIA18.0
IMPLIED — FSU32.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
45FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT7 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 7 positions on a 64-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
MIARECORD UNDERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs8.5-3.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+10.0
MIAMI won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
FSURECORD OVERSTATES
13-0ACTUALvs11.4-1.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+21.1
FLORIDA STATE won 13 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 11.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMIAMIFLORIDA STATE2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
OL70%DJ Scaife Jr.OL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJohn Campbell Jr.PORTAL · TENNESSEE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJakai ClarkPORTAL · SMU · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE46%Will MalloryTE · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKey'Shawn SmithPORTAL · SMU · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRomello BrinsonPORTAL · SMU · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL45%Mitchell AgudeDL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDarrell Jackson Jr.PORTAL · FLORIDA STATE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordan MillerPORTAL · SMU · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB43%DJ IveyCB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyrique StevensonCB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB38%Jaylan KnightonPORTAL · SMU · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONThad Franklin Jr.PORTAL · UL MONROE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB29%Jake GarciaQB · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB28%Caleb JohnsonLB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWaynmon Steed Jr.LB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
OLJavion Cohen · PORTAL ★4 · ALABAMAMatt Lee · PORTAL ★4 · UCFFrancis Mauigoa · SIGNEE ★51 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
WR/TECam McCormick · PORTAL ★3 · OREGONTyler Harrell · PORTAL ★3 · ALABAMARiley Williams · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLBranson Deen · PORTAL ★4 · PURDUEThomas Gore · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA STATERueben Bain Jr. · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBDavonte Brown · PORTAL ★4 · UCFJaden Davis · PORTAL ★4 · OKLAHOMARobert Stafford III · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBMark Fletcher Jr. · SIGNEE ★4Chris Johnson Jr. · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
QBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
LBFrancisco Mauigoa · PORTAL ★4 · WASHINGTON STATEMalik Bryant · SIGNEE ★4Raul Aguirre Jr. · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MIAMI
CARRIED COMPOSITE
47.028 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
48.538 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
46.132 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB7777638373 OF 7 GRADED
RB6464906296 OF 9 GRADED
WR/TE656583612115 OF 21 GRADED
OL727290351911 OF 19 GRADED
DL797985602216 OF 22 GRADED
LB81818648169 OF 16 GRADED
DB484883641812 OF 18 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE92nd92
BLUE-CHIP RATIO58%94
RECRUITING CLASS#7 · 16/25 BC95
CLASS RANK TREND+5 · 3 CYCLES60
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 14 IN / 23 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX41%74
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
FSUMIKE NORVELL4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5252
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7070
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MIAMARIO CRISTOBAL2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8383
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4747
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMIA OFFENSEFSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMIAMI OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEFLORIDA STATE DEFENSE MIA QUARTERBACKSn=717% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 57 PLAYERS23% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMIAMI OFFENSEFRONT-7FLORIDA STATE DEFENSE MIA OFFENSIVE LINEn=1965% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FSU FRONT-7n=34 · 2 ROOMS19% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMIAMI OFFENSEFRONT-7FLORIDA STATE DEFENSE MIA RUNNING BACKSn=939% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 34 PLAYERS19% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.558575%26%LINEBACKERSLB
0.458290%18%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMIAMI OFFENSESECONDARYFLORIDA STATE DEFENSE MIA PASS CATCHERSn=2139% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FSU SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM26% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MIA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FSU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+12
−8
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MIA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FSU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MIA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FSU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS55.8%
56.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS69.8%
67.2%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.1%
1.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MIA, ORANGE = FSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE