SAT 16:00 ET|FAU STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP4|O/U45.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
22
2-10
45
2
54
9%
29
8
18.8
+255
+7.5
HOME
7
4-8
49
23
28
45%
34
33
26.3
-310
-7.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALECU22—FAU7
CLOSED FAU -7.5TOTAL 45.0ECU COVERED · 29 POINTS · UNDER
ECU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
FAU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 11 FIELD n=64
MARKET
TOTAL45.0
SPREADFAU -7.5
IMPLIED — ECU18.8
IMPLIED — FAU26.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
35FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT7 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 7 positions on a 64-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
ECURECORD UNDERSTATES
2-10ACTUALvs4.2-7.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-5.1
EAST CAROLINA won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
FAURECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs5.5-6.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-1.8
FLORIDA ATLANTIC won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEREAST CAROLINAFLORIDA ATLANTIC2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB97%Holton AhlersQB · 97% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB73%Malik FlemingPORTAL · HOUSTON · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGerard StringerS · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJireh WilsonPORTAL · UCF · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE64%Isaiah WinsteadWR · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONC.J. JohnsonWR · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRyan JonesTE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL63%Nishad StrotherPORTAL · OREGON · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustin ReddOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAvery JonesPORTAL · AUBURN · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB60%Myles BerryLB · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONXavier SmithLB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChance BatesLB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB58%Keaton MitchellRB · 58% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL28%Shaundre MimsDL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONImmanuel Hickman Sr.PORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBRaheim Jeter · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBOmar Rogers · PORTAL ★3 · ELONJonathan Jones · PORTAL ★3 · CAMPBELLDontavius Nash · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINA4 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TERyan King · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA TECHChase Sowell · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADOKelan Robinson · PORTAL ★3 · KANSAS2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLDustyn Hall · PORTAL ★3 · DUKEPARTIAL
LBB.J. Davis · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH CAROLINA STATETyquan King · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINA A&TRaRa Dillworth · PORTAL ★3 · NORTH CAROLINA1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBGerald Green · PORTAL ★3 · GEORGIA SOUTHERNREFILLED
DLDemoris Jenkins · SIGNEE ★3Kieran Davis · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · EAST CAROLINA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
37.010 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
28.66 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
42.822 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6161352463 OF 6 GRADED
RB4848598684 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE363660621813 OF 18 GRADED
OL393947622212 OF 22 GRADED
DL585831991813 OF 18 GRADED
LB494926691511 OF 15 GRADED
DB545440572616 OF 26 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE45th45
BLUE-CHIP RATIO7%41
RECRUITING CLASS#65 · 1/21 BC52
CLASS RANK TREND+31 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 17 IN / 25 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 5th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX37%56
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
FAUTOM HERMANFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6363
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8787
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ECUMIKE HOUSTON5TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7272
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4343
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESECU OFFENSEFAU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBEAST CAROLINA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEFLORIDA ATLANTIC DEFENSE ECU QUARTERBACKSn=676% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FAU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERS31% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLEAST CAROLINA OFFENSEFRONT-7FLORIDA ATLANTIC DEFENSE ECU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2238% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FAU FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS21% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBEAST CAROLINA OFFENSEFRONT-7FLORIDA ATLANTIC DEFENSE ECU RUNNING BACKSn=814% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FAU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS23% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554496%0%LINEBACKERSLB
0.454454%18%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEEAST CAROLINA OFFENSESECONDARYFLORIDA ATLANTIC DEFENSE ECU PASS CATCHERSn=1838% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FAU SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM40% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ECU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FAU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+25
+22
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ECU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FAU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ECU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FAU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS55.3%
53.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS69.2%
75.0%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.6%
1.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ECU, ORANGE = FAU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE