SAT 19:00 ET|TDECU STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP1|O/U54.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
24
3-9
64
51
14
7%
94
87
25.5
+135
+3.0
HOME
14
4-8
65
13
30
23%
31
66
28.5
-160
-3.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALCIN24—HOU14
CLOSED HOU -3.0TOTAL 54.0CIN COVERED · 38 POINTS · UNDER
CIN
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
HOU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 11 FIELD n=64
MARKET
TOTAL54.0
SPREADHOU -3.0
IMPLIED — CIN25.5
IMPLIED — HOU28.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
50FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT8 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 8 positions on a 64-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
CINRECORD UNDERSTATES
3-9ACTUALvs4.5-7.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-5.9
CINCINNATI won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
HOURECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.0-8.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-7.8
HOUSTON won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERCINCINNATIHOUSTON2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB100%Ben BryantPORTAL · NORTHWESTERN · 100% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE90%Josh WhyleTE · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLeonard TaylorTE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyler ScottWR · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL79%Joe HuberPORTAL · WISCONSIN · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDylan O'QuinnOL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJames TunstallOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB78%Ivan Pace Jr.LB · 29% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWilson HuberLB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTy Van FossenLB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB63%Ja'von HicksS · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJa'Quan SheppardPORTAL · MARYLAND · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONArquon BushCB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB52%Charles McClellandRB · 52% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL29%Jabari TaylorDL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONNoah PotterPORTAL · NC STATE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBBrady Drogosh · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
WR/TEXzavier Henderson · PORTAL ★4 · FLORIDADonovan Ollie · PORTAL ★3 · WASHINGTON STATEAaron Turner · PORTAL ★3 · UCONN6 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLDeondre Buford · PORTAL ★3 · KENTUCKYLuke Kandra · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISVILLEPhillip Wilder · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBDorian Jones · PORTAL ★3 · LOUISVILLETrevor Carter · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBJordan Young · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDAJayden Davis · SIGNEE ★3Rayquan Adkins · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBManny Covey · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLDaniel Grzesiak · PORTAL ★3 · UTAH STATEKamari Burns · SIGNEE ★3Brian Simms III · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · CINCINNATI
CARRIED COMPOSITE
33.05 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
20.73 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
40.619 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4545301052 OF 5 GRADED
RB6262839885 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE474766362015 OF 20 GRADED
OL515160551811 OF 18 GRADED
DL545444861914 OF 19 GRADED
LB58587247168 OF 16 GRADED
DB424247551614 OF 16 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE64th64
BLUE-CHIP RATIO13%61
RECRUITING CLASS#75 · 1/12 BC44
CLASS RANK TREND-33 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-3 · 21 IN / 25 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
DEV TRANSITION MIX37%56
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
HOUDANA HOLGORSEN5TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9292
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7474
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
CINSCOTT SATTERFIELDFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3838
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7070
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESCIN OFFENSEHOU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBCINCINNATI OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEHOUSTON DEFENSE CIN QUARTERBACKSn=590% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
HOU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS50% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLCINCINNATI OFFENSEFRONT-7HOUSTON DEFENSE CIN OFFENSIVE LINEn=1845% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
HOU FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS17% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBCINCINNATI OFFENSEFRONT-7HOUSTON DEFENSE CIN RUNNING BACKSn=82% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
HOU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS16% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555874%6%LINEBACKERSLB
0.454597%14%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TECINCINNATI OFFENSESECONDARYHOUSTON DEFENSE CIN PASS CATCHERSn=2064% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
HOU SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM78% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
CIN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
HOU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+29
+35
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
CIN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
HOU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
CIN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
HOU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS58.6%
49.7%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS49.8%
72.5%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.5%
1.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = CIN, ORANGE = HOU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE