SAT 19:30 ET|TIGER STADIUM (LA)CONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP6|O/U67.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
35
5-7
90
89
56
37%
58
99
25.8
+500
+16.0
HOME
52
10-3
96
100
11
85%
25
64
41.8
-750
-16.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALFLA35—LSU52
CLOSED LSU -16.0TOTAL 67.5LSU COVERED · 87 POINTS · OVER
FLA
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
LSU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 11 FIELD n=64
MARKET
TOTAL67.5
SPREADLSU -16.0
IMPLIED — FLA25.8
IMPLIED — LSU41.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
69FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT1 SLOTThe two rankings disagree by 1 position on a 64-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
FLARECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.2-5.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+0.8
FLORIDA won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
LSURECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs9.3-2.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+18.7
LSU won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERFLORIDALSU2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB93%Anthony RichardsonQB · 89% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB64%Amari BurneyLB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONVentrell MillerLB · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrenton Cox Jr.LB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL58%Ethan WhiteOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONO'Cyrus TorrenceOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRichard GouraigeOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB53%Trey Dean IIIS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRashad Torrence IIS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTre'Vez JohnsonPORTAL · MISSOURI · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL50%Gervon Dexter Sr.DL · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAntwaun Powell-RylandPORTAL · VIRGINIA TECH · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalen LeePORTAL · LSU · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE22%Xzavier HendersonPORTAL · CINCINNATI · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB17%Nay'Quan WrightPORTAL · SOUTH FLORIDA · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBGraham Mertz · PORTAL ★4 · WISCONSINREFILLED
LBJaden Robinson · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
OLKiyaunta Goodwin · PORTAL ★4 · KENTUCKYMicah Mazzccua · PORTAL ★4 · BAYLORDamieon George · PORTAL ★3 · ALABAMA2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBRJ Moten · PORTAL ★4 · MICHIGANJa'Keem Jackson · SIGNEE ★4Dijon Johnson · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLCaleb Banks · PORTAL ★4 · LOUISVILLECamRon Jackson · PORTAL ★4 · MEMPHISKelby Collins · SIGNEE ★44 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEAidan Mizell · SIGNEE ★4Eugene Wilson III · SIGNEE ★4Andy Jean · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
RBTreyaun Webb · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · FLORIDA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
48.835 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
56.358 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
45.029 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB575784053 OF 5 GRADED
RB7474789285 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE696972662417 OF 24 GRADED
OL525279581915 OF 19 GRADED
DL595991572415 OF 24 GRADED
LB53538462119 OF 11 GRADED
DB494984662112 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE90th90
BLUE-CHIP RATIO54%91
RECRUITING CLASS#13 · 18/21 BC91
CLASS RANK TREND0 · 3 CYCLES50
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 12 IN / 25 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX37%55
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
LSUBRIAN KELLY2TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9595
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3434
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
FLABILLY NAPIER2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4646
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1212
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESFLA OFFENSELSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBFLORIDA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSELSU DEFENSE FLA QUARTERBACKSn=5100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 56 PLAYERS50% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLFLORIDA OFFENSEFRONT-7LSU DEFENSE FLA OFFENSIVE LINEn=1942% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LSU FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS43% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBFLORIDA OFFENSEFRONT-7LSU DEFENSE FLA RUNNING BACKSn=88% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS42% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555351%45%LINEBACKERSLB
0.455866%23%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEFLORIDA OFFENSESECONDARYLSU DEFENSE FLA PASS CATCHERSn=2434% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
LSU SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM56% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
FLA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LSU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+19
+3
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
FLA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LSU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
FLA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
LSU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS56.1%
53.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS70.2%
62.8%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.0%
1.5%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = FLA, ORANGE = LSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE