SAT 21:00 ET|ROSE BOWLCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP14|O/U45.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
17
3-9
69
24
51
61%
59
98
15.8
+550
+14.0
HOME
7
8-5
82
47
95
28%
89
68
29.8
-850
-14.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALASU17—UCLA7
CLOSED UCLA -14.0TOTAL 45.5ASU COVERED · 24 POINTS · UNDER
ASU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
UCLA
ASU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
UCLA
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 11 FIELD n=64
MARKET
TOTAL45.5
SPREADUCLA -14.0
IMPLIED — ASU15.8
IMPLIED — UCLA29.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
43FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT2 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 2 positions on a 64-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
ASURECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs2.4-9.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-14.1
ARIZONA STATE won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UCLARECORD UNDERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs8.4-3.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+7.7
UCLA won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERARIZONA STATEUCLA2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB96%Xazavian ValladayRB · 73% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDaniyel NgataPORTAL · WASHINGTON · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB95%Merlin RobertsonLB · 44% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKyle SoelleLB · 41% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONConnor SoellePORTAL · OREGON · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL70%Nesta Jade SilveraDL · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoe MoorePORTAL · MISSOURI · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTravez MooreDL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL63%Chris MartinezOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBen ScottPORTAL · NEBRASKA · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDes HolmesOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB52%Emory JonesPORTAL · CINCINNATI · 52% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB43%Khoury BethleyDB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDJ Taylor Jr.PORTAL · CINCINNATI · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTimarcus DavisDB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE20%Bryan ThompsonWR · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBCameron Skattebo · PORTAL ★3 · SACRAMENTO STATEPARTIAL
LBK'Vion Thunderbird · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLDashaun Mallory · PORTAL ★3 · MICHIGAN STATEClayton Smith · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMATristan Monday · PORTAL ★3 · WISCONSIN3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLAaron Frost · PORTAL ★4 · NEVADABram Walden · PORTAL ★3 · OREGONBen Coleman · PORTAL ★3 · CALIFORNIAREFILLED
QBDrew Pyne · PORTAL ★3 · NOTRE DAMEJaden Rashada · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
DBXavion Alford · PORTAL ★3 · USCShamari Simmons · PORTAL ★3 · AUSTIN PEAYShawn Russ · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEJordyn Tyson · PORTAL ★4 · COLORADOXavier Guillory · PORTAL ★3 · IDAHO STATEMelquan Stovall · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADO STATE2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · ARIZONA STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
24.53 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
34.913 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
19.12 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6565305754 OF 5 GRADED
RB808056976 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE585869652413 OF 24 GRADED
OL636361262116 OF 21 GRADED
DL565667122015 OF 20 GRADED
LB43435746104 OF 10 GRADED
DB606074662313 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE69th69
BLUE-CHIP RATIO16%66
RECRUITING CLASS#44 · 1/19 BC68
CLASS RANK TREND+4 · 3 CYCLES58
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 28 IN / 29 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
DEV TRANSITION MIX26%11
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UCLACHIP KELLY6TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5656
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9292
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ASUKENNY DILLINGHAMFIRST SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5050
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9191
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESASU OFFENSEUCLA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBARIZONA STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEUCLA DEFENSE ASU QUARTERBACKSn=543% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UCLA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS13% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLARIZONA STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7UCLA DEFENSE ASU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2174% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UCLA FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS17% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBARIZONA STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7UCLA DEFENSE ASU RUNNING BACKSn=791% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UCLA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS17% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.558187%21%LINEBACKERSLB
0.456878%25%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEARIZONA STATE OFFENSESECONDARYUCLA DEFENSE ASU PASS CATCHERSn=2435% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UCLA SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM10% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ASU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UCLA
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+47
+2
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ASU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UCLA
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ASU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UCLA
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS50.8%
59.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS73.0%
65.9%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.6%
0.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ASU, ORANGE = UCLA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE