SAT 12:00 ET|MEMORIAL STADIUM (BLOOMINGTON, IN)CONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP15|O/U46.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
24
4-8
81
20
69
21%
15
—
21.5
+140
+3.5
HOME
21
3-9
66
60
41
36%
48
—
25.0
-165
-3.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALMSU24—IU21
CLOSED IU -3.5TOTAL 46.5MSU COVERED · 45 POINTS · UNDER
MSU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
IU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 12 FIELD n=64
MARKET
TOTAL46.5
SPREADIU -3.5
IMPLIED — MSU21.5
IMPLIED — IU25.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
44FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT2 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 2 positions on a 64-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
MSURECORD OVERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs2.4-9.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-12.4
MICHIGAN STATE won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
IURECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs4.0-8.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-7.8
INDIANA won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMICHIGAN STATEINDIANA2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB95%Payton ThornePORTAL · AUBURN · 95% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE68%Keon ColemanPORTAL · FLORIDA STATE · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJayden ReedWR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDaniel BarkerTE · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB51%Kendell BrooksCB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAmeer SpeedCB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONXavier HendersonS · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB47%Elijah CollinsPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE · 30% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJarek BroussardRB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DL29%Jacob SladeDT · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDashaun MalloryPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMichael FletcherPORTAL · APP STATE · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB29%Ben VanSumerenLB · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL25%Jarrett HorstOT · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMatt CarrickG · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrian GreeneOL · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBSam Leavitt · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
WR/TEAdemola Faleye · PORTAL ★3 · NORFOLK STATEAlante Brown · PORTAL ★3 · NEBRASKATyneil Hopper · PORTAL ★3 · BOISE STATE2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBSemar Melvin · PORTAL ★3 · WISCONSINChance Rucker · SIGNEE ★3Eddie Pleasant III · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBJaren Mangham · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH FLORIDANathan Carter · PORTAL ★3 · UCONNREFILLED
DLTunmise Adeleye · PORTAL ★4 · TEXAS A&MJarrett Jackson · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATEJalen Sami · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADO3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBJordan Hall · SIGNEE ★4Leonard Ah You · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLStanton Ramil · SIGNEE ★4Cole Dellinger · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MICHIGAN STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
57.567 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
50.743 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
61.371 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB2929589244 OF 4 GRADED
RB77554686 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE424267692417 OF 24 GRADED
OL363668951913 OF 19 GRADED
DL545475761918 OF 19 GRADED
LB525273711410 OF 14 GRADED
DB494966792216 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE81st81
BLUE-CHIP RATIO24%75
RECRUITING CLASS#24 · 7/18 BC83
CLASS RANK TREND+19 · 3 CYCLES88
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-3 · 14 IN / 17 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
DEV TRANSITION MIX32%29
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
IUTOM ALLEN7TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6666
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3333
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MSUHARLON BARNETTFIRST SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5858
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1313
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMSU OFFENSEIU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMICHIGAN STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEINDIANA DEFENSE MSU QUARTERBACKSn=48% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS50% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMICHIGAN STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7INDIANA DEFENSE MSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=195% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IU FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS55% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMICHIGAN STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7INDIANA DEFENSE MSU RUNNING BACKSn=854% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS51% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553414%11%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMICHIGAN STATE OFFENSESECONDARYINDIANA DEFENSE MSU PASS CATCHERSn=2431% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
IU SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM46% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
IU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+47
+34
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
IU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
IU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS55.3%
55.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS70.0%
61.1%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.1%
1.2%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MSU, ORANGE = IU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE