SAT 12:00 ET|MICHIE STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP38|O/U40.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
21
8-5
39
55
27
92%
57
—
20.8
-170
-1.0
HOME
28
6-6
1
20
36
50%
11
—
19.8
+145
+1.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALCCU21—ARMY28
CLOSED CCU -1.0TOTAL 40.5ARMY COVERED · 49 POINTS · OVER
CCU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
ARMY
CCU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ARMY
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 12 FIELD n=64
MARKET
TOTAL40.5
SPREADCCU -1.0
IMPLIED — CCU20.8
IMPLIED — ARMY19.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
45FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT14 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 14 positions on a 64-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
CCURECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs6.9-5.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+3.3
COASTAL CAROLINA won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ARMYRECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs5.8-6.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.6
ARMY won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERCOASTAL CAROLINAARMY2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DL51%Josaiah StewartPORTAL · MICHIGAN · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJerrod ClarkNT · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAmadou FofanaDE · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB41%Lance BoykinCB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJairan ParkerS · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIOND'Jordan StrongCB · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL38%Willie LampkinPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAntwine LoperOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE37%Xavier GravetteTE · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacob JenkinsPORTAL · LIBERTY · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB21%Adrian HopeLB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB3%Nate Hope IIRB · 3% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB3%Bryce CarpenterQB · 2% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DLCarlos Hatcher · PORTAL ★3 · TULANEMichael Mason · PORTAL · WOFFORDJoshua Saddler · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBJuan Powell · PORTAL ★3 · EAST CAROLINAAvyonne Jones · PORTAL ★3 · WISCONSINAbraham Temoney III · PORTAL ★2 · ERSKINE COLLEGE1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
OLEvan Jumper · PORTAL ★3 · FURMANMichael Cogoni · SIGNEEMarlon Corey II · SIGNEEPARTIAL
WR/TECane Berrong · PORTAL ★3 · NOTRE DAMEZach Courtney · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADOGenson Hooper-Price · PORTAL ★3 · NORTHWESTERN3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBWyatt Gedeon · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBJa'Vin Simpkins · SIGNEE ★3Jahbari Kuykendall · SIGNEE ★3Darren Lloyd · SIGNEEINTACT
QBEthan Vasko · PORTAL ★3 · KANSASBlake Boda · SIGNEE ★3Luke Sather · SIGNEEINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · COASTAL CAROLINA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
55.858 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
54.254 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
56.858 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6161637064 OF 6 GRADED
RB2929239266 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE575755682316 OF 23 GRADED
OL525240602017 OF 20 GRADED
DL303043631713 OF 17 GRADED
LB222227721411 OF 14 GRADED
DB505055312318 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE39th39
BLUE-CHIP RATIO3%23
RECRUITING CLASS#114 · 0/17 BC15
CLASS RANK TREND-30 · 3 CYCLES0
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-2 · 12 IN / 18 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
DEV TRANSITION MIX29%18
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ARMYJEFF MONKEN8TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
00
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
100100
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
CCUTIM BECKFIRST SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2424
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3838
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESCCU OFFENSEARMY OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBCOASTAL CAROLINA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEARMY DEFENSE CCU QUARTERBACKSn=630% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARMY DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 73 PLAYERS8% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLCOASTAL CAROLINA OFFENSEFRONT-7ARMY DEFENSE CCU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2040% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARMY FRONT-7n=46 · 2 ROOMS11% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBCOASTAL CAROLINA OFFENSEFRONT-7ARMY DEFENSE CCU RUNNING BACKSn=68% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARMY FRONT-72 ROOMS · 46 PLAYERS11% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.552896%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TECOASTAL CAROLINA OFFENSESECONDARYARMY DEFENSE CCU PASS CATCHERSn=2332% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARMY SECONDARYn=27 · 1 ROOM6% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
CCU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARMY
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−13
−41
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
CCU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARMY
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
CCU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARMY
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS54.5%
80.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS59.4%
35.8%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.4%
0.7%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = CCU, ORANGE = ARMY) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE