SAT 14:00 ET|AMFIRST STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP18|O/U54.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
17
3-9
24
21
9
37%
49
—
22.5
+265
+9.5
HOME
JXSTCUSAJACKSONVILLE STATE 56
9-4
6
10
85
0%
97
—
32.0
-330
-9.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALLT17—JXST56
CLOSED JXST -9.5TOTAL 54.5JXST COVERED · 73 POINTS · OVER
LT
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
JXST
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 12 FIELD n=64
MARKET
TOTAL54.5
SPREADJXST -9.5
IMPLIED — LT22.5
IMPLIED — JXST32.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
47FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT16 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 16 positions on a 64-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
LTRECORD UNDERSTATES
3-9ACTUALvs4.2-7.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-7.5
LOUISIANA TECH won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
JXSTRECORD MATCHES
8-4ACTUALvs8.6-3.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+9.5
JACKSONVILLE STATE won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERLOUISIANA TECHJACKSONVILLE STATE2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB93%Parker McNeilQB · 48% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLandry LyddyPORTAL · UAB · 28% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMatthew DowningPORTAL · ELON · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
LB65%Maki CarabinLB · 27% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKhiry MorrisonPORTAL · ARKANSAS-PINE BLUFF · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyler GrubbsPORTAL · TULANE · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL64%Keivie RosePORTAL · ARKANSAS · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONRasheed LylesDL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKershawn FisherPORTAL · NICHOLLS · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION8 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB63%Myles BrooksDB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJaiden ColeDB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONReginald Johnson Jr.DB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION10 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE38%Tre HarrisPORTAL · OLE MISS · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGriffin HebertTE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL35%Joshua MoteOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaac EllisOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB12%Greg GarnerRB · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBHank Bachmeier · PORTAL ★3 · BOISE STATEBlake Baker · SIGNEE ★3Evan Bullock · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
LBDeMardrick Blunt · SIGNEE ★3Colton Deckard · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DLDelvin Whitaker · SIGNEE ★3Obinna Okeke · SIGNEE ★3Charlie Robinson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBZach Zimos · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSASJacob Fields · SIGNEE ★3Tre Webb III · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEDecoldest Crawford · PORTAL ★3 · NEBRASKAEli Finley · SIGNEE ★3Dedrick Latulas · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
OLHayden Christman · SIGNEE ★3Ja'Marion Kennedy · SIGNEE ★3Keystone Allison · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBCraig Williams · PORTAL ★3 · BAYLORKeith Willis · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · LOUISIANA TECH
CARRIED COMPOSITE
41.813 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
51.145 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
36.010 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4949643373 OF 7 GRADED
RB4141324565 OF 6 GRADED
WR/TE555547642516 OF 25 GRADED
OL474745992013 OF 20 GRADED
DL353540571510 OF 15 GRADED
LB434350894 OF 9 GRADED
DB484827522112 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE24th24
BLUE-CHIP RATIO3%23
RECRUITING CLASS#77 · 0/21 BC43
CLASS RANK TREND+44 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 19 IN / 23 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX36%52
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
JXSTRICH RODRIGUEZFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
33
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3232
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
LTSONNY CUMBIE2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4646
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5555
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESLT OFFENSEJXST OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBLOUISIANA TECH OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEJACKSONVILLE STATE DEFENSE LT QUARTERBACKSn=767% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
JXST DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 58 PLAYERS37% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLLOUISIANA TECH OFFENSEFRONT-7JACKSONVILLE STATE DEFENSE LT OFFENSIVE LINEn=201% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
JXST FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS41% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBLOUISIANA TECH OFFENSEFRONT-7JACKSONVILLE STATE DEFENSE LT RUNNING BACKSn=655% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
JXST FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS43% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556173%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TELOUISIANA TECH OFFENSESECONDARYJACKSONVILLE STATE DEFENSE LT PASS CATCHERSn=2536% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
JXST SECONDARYn=25 · 1 ROOM34% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
LT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
JXST
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+5
−43
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
LT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
JXST
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
LT
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
JXST
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS50.8%
75.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS67.8%
65.4%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.3%
0.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = LT, ORANGE = JXST) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE