SAT 15:00 ET|SCOTT STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP1|O/U45.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
27
8-5
52
78
82
99%
8
—
24.3
-175
-3.0
HOME
30
3-9
53
56
60
21%
84
—
21.3
+150
+3.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALDUKE27—UVA30
CLOSED DUKE -3.0TOTAL 45.5UVA COVERED · 57 POINTS · OVER
DUKE
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
UVA
DUKE
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
UVA
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 12 FIELD n=64
MARKET
TOTAL45.5
SPREADDUKE -3.0
IMPLIED — DUKE24.3
IMPLIED — UVA21.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
55FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT31 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 31 positions on a 64-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
DUKERECORD UNDERSTATES
7-5ACTUALvs8.3-3.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+8.0
DUKE won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UVARECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs3.5-8.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-5
POINT MARGIN / GAME-10.5
VIRGINIA won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERDUKEVIRGINIA2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB41%Shaka HeywardLB · 40% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL38%Chance LytleOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJack BurnsOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB36%Darius JoinerDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDatrone YoungDB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE3%Darrell Harding Jr.PORTAL · BUFFALO · 1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL2%Michael LarbiePORTAL · RICE · 1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB1%RaShawn AllenRB · <1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBKevin O'Connor · SIGNEE ★3Kendall Johnson · SIGNEE ★3Luke Mergott · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLJake Hornibrook · PORTAL ★3 · STANFORDBen Hoitink · PORTAL ★3 · PENNSYLVANIAScott Elliott · PORTAL ★3 · HARVARDREFILLED
DBMyles Jones · PORTAL ★3 · TEXAS A&MAl Blades Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · MIAMIMoussa Kane · SIGNEE ★34 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
WR/TEVance Bolyard · SIGNEE ★3Que'Sean Brown · SIGNEE ★3Spencer Jones · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DLSemaj Turner · SIGNEE ★3Terry Simmons Jr. · SIGNEE ★3Tony Boggs · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
RBPeyton Jones · SIGNEE ★3Marquise Collins · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · DUKE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
68.794 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
72.286 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
66.787 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB8181685743 OF 4 GRADED
RB5050689485 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE494956822512 OF 25 GRADED
OL575765671510 OF 15 GRADED
DL626260971814 OF 18 GRADED
LB45455598127 OF 12 GRADED
DB595972692216 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE52nd52
BLUE-CHIP RATIO3%21
RECRUITING CLASS#56 · 0/26 BC59
CLASS RANK TREND+2 · 3 CYCLES54
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 6 IN / 16 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX14%2
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UVATONY ELLIOTT2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6868
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3535
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
DUKEMIKE ELKO2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3535
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2929
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESDUKE OFFENSEUVA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBDUKE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEVIRGINIA DEFENSE DUKE QUARTERBACKSn=443% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UVA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 60 PLAYERS34% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLDUKE OFFENSEFRONT-7VIRGINIA DEFENSE DUKE OFFENSIVE LINEn=1533% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UVA FRONT-7n=41 · 2 ROOMS24% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBDUKE OFFENSEFRONT-7VIRGINIA DEFENSE DUKE RUNNING BACKSn=86% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UVA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 41 PLAYERS25% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553785%11%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEDUKE OFFENSESECONDARYVIRGINIA DEFENSE DUKE PASS CATCHERSn=2518% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UVA SECONDARYn=19 · 1 ROOM43% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
DUKE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UVA
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−27
+30
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
DUKE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UVA
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
DUKE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UVA
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS60.1%
54.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS60.0%
65.4%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.0%
2.2%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = DUKE, ORANGE = UVA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE