SAT 16:00 ET|MOUNTAIN AMERICA STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP25|O/U54.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
49
12-2
93
99
90
81%
67
95
38.0
-2400
-22.0
HOME
13
3-9
69
24
51
61%
59
—
16.0
+1200
+22.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALORE49—ASU13
CLOSED ORE -22.0TOTAL 54.0ORE COVERED · 62 POINTS · OVER
ORE
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ASU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 12 FIELD n=64
MARKET
TOTAL54.0
SPREADORE -22.0
IMPLIED — ORE38.0
IMPLIED — ASU16.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
48FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT9 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 9 positions on a 64-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
ORERECORD MATCHES
11-2ACTUALvs11.7-1.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+26.8
OREGON won 11 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 11.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ASURECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs2.4-9.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME-14.1
ARIZONA STATE won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEROREGONARIZONA STATE2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
OL67%Malaesala Aumavae-LauluOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONT.J. BassOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAlex ForsythOL · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB50%Noah SewellLB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDJ JohnsonLB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeith BrownPORTAL · LOUISVILLE · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE48%Cam McCormickPORTAL · MIAMI · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMoliki MatavaoPORTAL · UCLA · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChase CotaWR · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB43%Bennett WilliamsDB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChristian GonzalezDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL30%Jordon RileyDL · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTreven Ma'aePORTAL · BAYLOR · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBradyn SwinsonPORTAL · LSU · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB15%Sean DollarsPORTAL · NEVADA · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB1%Jay ButterfieldPORTAL · SAN JOSÉ STATE · <1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
OLAjani Cornelius · PORTAL ★4 · RHODE ISLANDJunior Angilau · PORTAL ★4 · TEXASIapani Laloulu · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
LBJestin Jacobs · PORTAL ★4 · IOWAREFILLED
WR/TETraeshon Holden · PORTAL ★4 · ALABAMAGary Bryant Jr. · PORTAL ★4 · USCJurrion Dickey · SIGNEE ★51 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBEvan Williams · PORTAL ★4 · FRESNO STATERodrick Pleasant · SIGNEE ★4Daylen Austin · SIGNEE ★42 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLJordan Burch · PORTAL ★4 · SOUTH CAROLINAMatayo Uiagalelei · SIGNEE ★4Johnny Bowens III · SIGNEE ★44 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBDante Dowdell · SIGNEE ★4Jayden Limar · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
QBAustin Novosad · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · OREGON
CARRIED COMPOSITE
56.059 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
53.351 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
57.761 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB8989789842 OF 4 GRADED
RB8484839285 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE777790522513 OF 25 GRADED
OL888875712415 OF 24 GRADED
DL575777631917 OF 19 GRADED
LB535382641310 OF 13 GRADED
DB565685402618 OF 26 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE93rd93
BLUE-CHIP RATIO53%91
RECRUITING CLASS#9 · 19/33 BC94
CLASS RANK TREND-3 · 3 CYCLES44
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-5 · 15 IN / 34 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX39%66
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ASUKENNY DILLINGHAMFIRST SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5050
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9191
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
OREDAN LANNING2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7979
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8989
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESORE OFFENSEASU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBOREGON OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEARIZONA STATE DEFENSE ORE QUARTERBACKSn=42% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ASU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS52% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLOREGON OFFENSEFRONT-7ARIZONA STATE DEFENSE ORE OFFENSIVE LINEn=2429% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ASU FRONT-7n=30 · 2 ROOMS74% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBOREGON OFFENSEFRONT-7ARIZONA STATE DEFENSE ORE RUNNING BACKSn=88% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ASU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 30 PLAYERS73% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555612%10%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEOREGON OFFENSESECONDARYARIZONA STATE DEFENSE ORE PASS CATCHERSn=2548% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ASU SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM34% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ORE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ASU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−5
+47
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ORE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ASU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ORE
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ASU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS50.5%
50.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS69.5%
73.0%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.6%
1.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ORE, ORANGE = ASU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE