SAT 19:30 ET|WILLIAMS-BRICE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP7|O/U54.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
14
7-6
78
49
58
48%
0
—
28.0
+110
-1.5
HOME
17
5-7
85
80
55
64%
44
—
26.5
-130
+1.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · DRAFTKINGS
FINALUK14—SC17
CLOSED UK -1.5TOTAL 54.5SC COVERED · 31 POINTS · UNDER
UK
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
SC
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 12 FIELD n=64
MARKET
TOTAL54.5
SPREADUK -1.5
IMPLIED — UK28.0
IMPLIED — SC26.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
52FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT3 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 3 positions on a 64-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
UKRECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs7.0-5.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+3.8
KENTUCKY won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
SCRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs5.9-6.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-0.3
SOUTH CAROLINA won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERKENTUCKYSOUTH CAROLINA2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB80%Will LevisQB · 80% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB59%Chris Rodriguez Jr.RB · 41% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKavosiey SmokePORTAL · COLORADO · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB57%Keidron SmithDB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONCarrington ValentineDB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyrell AjianDB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB41%Jordan WrightLB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeAndre SquareLB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJacquez JonesLB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL27%Tashawn ManningOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL21%Justin RogersPORTAL · AUBURN · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE14%Keaton UpshawPORTAL · GEORGIA SOUTHERN · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBDevin Leary · PORTAL ★4 · NC STATEREFILLED
RBRay Davis · PORTAL ★4 · VANDERBILTDemie Sumo-Karngbaye · PORTAL ★4 · NC STATEJamarion Wilcox · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DBJQ Hardaway · PORTAL ★4 · CINCINNATIJantzen Dunn · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATEAvery Stuart · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
LBDaveren Rayner · PORTAL ★3 · NORTHERN ILLINOISGrant Godfrey · SIGNEE ★4Jayvant Brown · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
OLTanner Bowles · PORTAL ★4 · ALABAMABen Christman · PORTAL ★3 · OHIO STATEMarques Cox · PORTAL ★3 · NORTHERN ILLINOIS3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLKeeshawn Silver · PORTAL ★4 · NORTH CAROLINAKendrick Gilbert · SIGNEE ★4Tavion Gadson · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
WR/TEShamar Porter · SIGNEE ★4Khamari Anderson · SIGNEE ★4Anthony Brown-Stephens · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · KENTUCKY
CARRIED COMPOSITE
60.374 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
70.782 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
53.048 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB484899152 OF 5 GRADED
RB72728816105 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE707078922412 OF 24 GRADED
OL626272582110 OF 21 GRADED
DL676779891614 OF 16 GRADED
LB60608092159 OF 15 GRADED
DB535366761712 OF 17 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE78th78
BLUE-CHIP RATIO41%88
RECRUITING CLASS#32 · 7/18 BC77
CLASS RANK TREND0 · 3 CYCLES50
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 12 IN / 21 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 8th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX19%4
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
SCSHANE BEAMER3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6262
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6060
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
UKMARK STOOPS8TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4949
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3131
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUK OFFENSESC OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBKENTUCKY OFFENSEFULL DEFENSESOUTH CAROLINA DEFENSE UK QUARTERBACKSn=599% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SC DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 47 PLAYERS21% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLKENTUCKY OFFENSEFRONT-7SOUTH CAROLINA DEFENSE UK OFFENSIVE LINEn=2142% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SC FRONT-7n=27 · 2 ROOMS15% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBKENTUCKY OFFENSEFRONT-7SOUTH CAROLINA DEFENSE UK RUNNING BACKSn=1084% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SC FRONT-72 ROOMS · 27 PLAYERS15% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554889%23%LINEBACKERSLB
0.454279%43%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEKENTUCKY OFFENSESECONDARYSOUTH CAROLINA DEFENSE UK PASS CATCHERSn=248% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SC SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM27% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
UK
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SC
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−6
+22
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
UK
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SC
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
UK
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SC
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS53.5%
50.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS73.3%
74.7%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.9%
0.7%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = UK, ORANGE = SC) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE