FRI 16:00 ET|RAZORBACK STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP6|O/U53.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
48
11-2
83
86
73
65%
57
—
31.8
-300
-10.0
HOME
14
4-8
77
53
68
58%
53
—
21.8
+250
+10.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALMIZ48—ARK14
CLOSED MIZ -10.0TOTAL 53.5MIZ COVERED · 62 POINTS · OVER
MIZ
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ARK
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 13 FIELD n=65
MARKET
TOTAL53.5
SPREADMIZ -10.0
IMPLIED — MIZ31.8
IMPLIED — ARK21.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
50FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT6 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 6 positions on a 65-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
MIZRECORD OVERSTATES
10-2ACTUALvs8.8-3.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+11.8
MISSOURI won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ARKRECORD UNDERSTATES
4-8ACTUALvs5.7-6.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-5
POINT MARGIN / GAME-1.3
ARKANSAS won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERMISSOURIARKANSAS2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE47%Tauskie DovePORTAL · MEMPHIS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDominic LovettPORTAL · GEORGIA · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBarrett BanisterWR · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL46%Isaiah McGuireDL · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrajan JeffcoatPORTAL · ARKANSAS · 12% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDJ ColemanDL · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL25%Connor WoodOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB17%Martez ManuelDB · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJalani WilliamsPORTAL · KENT STATE · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB10%Elijah YoungPORTAL · WESTERN KENTUCKY · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB7%Devin NicholsonPORTAL · KENT STATE · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
QB2%Jack AbrahamQB · 2% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TETheo Wease · PORTAL ★4 · OKLAHOMABrett Norfleet · SIGNEE ★4Joshua Manning · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLAustin Firestone · PORTAL ★3 · NORTHWESTERNNyles Gaddy · PORTAL ★3 · JACKSON STATEJahkai Lang · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLCam'Ron Johnson · PORTAL ★4 · HOUSTONMarcellus Johnson · PORTAL ★4 · EASTERN MICHIGANLogan Reichert · SIGNEE ★41 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DBTre'Vez Johnson · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDAMarvin Burks Jr. · SIGNEE ★4Shamar McNeil · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBJamal Roberts · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
LBSidney Williams · PORTAL ★3 · FLORIDA STATEBrayshawn Littlejohn · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
QBJake Garcia · PORTAL ★4 · MIAMIGabarri Johnson · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · MISSOURI
CARRIED COMPOSITE
74.297 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
77.394 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
72.796 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB45457010072 OF 7 GRADED
RB46467510083 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE616178581912 OF 19 GRADED
OL50506579188 OF 18 GRADED
DL818164831810 OF 18 GRADED
LB75755850126 OF 12 GRADED
DB707077822113 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE83rd83
BLUE-CHIP RATIO29%81
RECRUITING CLASS#34 · 5/19 BC75
CLASS RANK TREND-7 · 3 CYCLES36
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 8 IN / 20 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX42%77
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ARKSAM PITTMAN4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3636
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3333
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
MIZELI DRINKWITZ4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3535
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1414
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESMIZ OFFENSEARK OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBMISSOURI OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEARKANSAS DEFENSE MIZ QUARTERBACKSn=70% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARK DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 53 PLAYERS55% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLMISSOURI OFFENSEFRONT-7ARKANSAS DEFENSE MIZ OFFENSIVE LINEn=1821% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARK FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS54% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBMISSOURI OFFENSEFRONT-7ARKANSAS DEFENSE MIZ RUNNING BACKSn=80% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARK FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS54% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556950%18%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEMISSOURI OFFENSESECONDARYARKANSAS DEFENSE MIZ PASS CATCHERSn=1942% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ARK SECONDARYn=24 · 1 ROOM56% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
MIZ
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARK
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−10
+19
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
MIZ
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARK
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
MIZ
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ARK
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS62.8%
62.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS69.4%
63.7%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.8%
1.2%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = MIZ, ORANGE = ARK) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE