SAT 14:00 ET|DOWDY-FICKLEN STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP4|O/U44.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
29
4-8
40
37
11
26%
84
—
20.5
+140
+3.0
HOME
27
2-10
45
2
54
9%
29
—
23.5
-165
-3.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALTLSA29—ECU27
CLOSED ECU -3.0TOTAL 44.0TLSA COVERED · 56 POINTS · OVER
TLSA
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
ECU
TLSA
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
ECU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 13 FIELD n=65
MARKET
TOTAL44.0
SPREADECU -3.0
IMPLIED — TLSA20.5
IMPLIED — ECU23.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
41FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT5 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 5 positions on a 65-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
TLSARECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs3.5-8.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-10.4
TULSA won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
ECURECORD UNDERSTATES
2-10ACTUALvs4.2-7.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-5.1
EAST CAROLINA won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTULSAEAST CAROLINA2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB93%Jon-Michael TerryLB · 32% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJustin WrightPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE · 31% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGrant SawyerLB · 24% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB84%Deneric PrinceRB · 51% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONSteven AndersonRB · 33% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
WR/TE72%JuanCarlos SantanaWR · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONIsaiah EppsWR · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeylon StokesWR · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
QB61%Davis BrinPORTAL · GEORGIA SOUTHERN · 61% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB40%Tyon DavisCB · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBryson PowersS · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKenney Solomon IICB · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL38%Jaden MuskratPORTAL · AUBURN · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDillon WadePORTAL · AUBURN · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL34%Anthony GoodlowPORTAL · OKLAHOMA STATE · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBJulien Simon · PORTAL ★4 · USCCJ Turner · SIGNEE ★3Elijah Wilson · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBNONE THIS CYCLEOPEN
WR/TEMari Smith · SIGNEE ★3Ashton Schumann · SIGNEE ★3Jahrid Hughes · SIGNEE ★33 MORE ARRIVALSPARTIAL
QBJackson Johnson · SIGNEEKirk Francis · SIGNEEPARTIAL
DBAdrian Huey · PORTAL ★3 · KENTUCKYKeuan Parker · PORTAL ★3 · ARKANSASDemarco Jones · PORTAL ★3 · OKLAHOMA STATE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
OLKasen Carpenter · SIGNEE ★3Bennett Ringleb · SIGNEEPARTIAL
DLReeves Baller · SIGNEE ★3James Eaglin · SIGNEE ★3Zaid Hamden · SIGNEE1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TULSA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
52.445 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
63.173 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
46.334 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4040382474 OF 7 GRADED
RB4040663485 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE444438572213 OF 22 GRADED
OL525259851513 OF 15 GRADED
DL454557641913 OF 19 GRADED
LB41416843147 OF 14 GRADED
DB393947632419 OF 24 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE40th40
BLUE-CHIP RATIO8%48
RECRUITING CLASS#115 · 0/21 BC14
CLASS RANK TREND+11 · 3 CYCLES72
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 6 IN / 9 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
DEV TRANSITION MIX42%77
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
ECUMIKE HOUSTON5TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7272
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4343
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TLSAKEVIN WILSONFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1414
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2323
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTLSA OFFENSEECU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTULSA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEEAST CAROLINA DEFENSE TLSA QUARTERBACKSn=776% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ECU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 59 PLAYERS29% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTULSA OFFENSEFRONT-7EAST CAROLINA DEFENSE TLSA OFFENSIVE LINEn=1515% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ECU FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS13% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTULSA OFFENSEFRONT-7EAST CAROLINA DEFENSE TLSA RUNNING BACKSn=866% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ECU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS14% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555899%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETULSA OFFENSESECONDARYEAST CAROLINA DEFENSE TLSA PASS CATCHERSn=2243% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
ECU SECONDARYn=26 · 1 ROOM43% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TLSA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ECU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+24
+25
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TLSA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ECU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TLSA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
ECU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS68.8%
55.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS62.3%
69.2%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.5%
1.6%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TLSA, ORANGE = ECU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE