SAT 19:00 ET|BOBCAT STADIUM (TX)CONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP9|O/U57.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
44
7-6
42
71
57
86%
64
—
31.8
-220
-6.5
HOME
52
8-5
32
83
3
47%
93
—
25.3
+180
+6.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALUSA44—TXST52
CLOSED USA -6.5TOTAL 57.0TXST COVERED · 96 POINTS · OVER
USA
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
TXST
USA
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
TXST
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 13 FIELD n=65
MARKET
TOTAL57.0
SPREADUSA -6.5
IMPLIED — USA31.8
IMPLIED — TXST25.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
77FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT11 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 11 positions on a 65-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
USARECORD UNDERSTATES
6-6ACTUALvs8.3-3.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-2.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+9.0
SOUTH ALABAMA won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TXSTRECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs6.4-5.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-3
POINT MARGIN / GAME+2.2
TEXAS STATE won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERSOUTH ALABAMATEXAS STATE2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
LB33%CJ RiasLB · 26% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONA.J. DeShazor Jr.LB · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB32%Darrell Luter Jr.CB · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJamar RichardsonCB · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL32%James JacksonOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONPJ MixonOL · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB24%Omni WellsRB · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE17%Jalen WayneWR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL8%Gi'Narious JohnsonDL · 4% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
LBGavin Forsha · PORTAL ★2 · KANSAS STATEREFILLED
DBJordan Buchanan · PORTAL ★3 · PURDUEWesley Miller · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATEJoshua Bledsoe · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
OLReed Buys · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATELucas Taylor · PORTAL ★3 · MISSISSIPPI STATEJordan Davis · PORTAL ★3 · SOUTH CAROLINA1 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
RBKentrel Bullock · PORTAL ★3 · OLE MISSJarvis Durr · SIGNEE ★3Patrick Martin · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
WR/TEJavon Ivory · PORTAL ★3 · MEMPHISAnthony Eager · SIGNEE ★3Trent Thomas · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
DLAdrian Griffin · SIGNEE ★3Jordan Norman · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · SOUTH ALABAMA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
70.494 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
71.985 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
69.492 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB4343678663 OF 6 GRADED
RB6161387288 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE565656832416 OF 24 GRADED
OL505048671912 OF 19 GRADED
DL525221981513 OF 15 GRADED
LB616167971310 OF 13 GRADED
DB484877872615 OF 26 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE42nd42
BLUE-CHIP RATIO4%30
RECRUITING CLASS#90 · 0/12 BC33
CLASS RANK TREND+32 · 3 CYCLES100
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 9 IN / 4 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX36%51
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TXSTG.J. KINNEFIRST SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4242
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8888
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
USAKANE WOMMACK3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5959
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7676
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESUSA OFFENSETXST OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBSOUTH ALABAMA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSETEXAS STATE DEFENSE USA QUARTERBACKSn=614% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TXST DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS64% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLSOUTH ALABAMA OFFENSEFRONT-7TEXAS STATE DEFENSE USA OFFENSIVE LINEn=1933% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TXST FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS54% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBSOUTH ALABAMA OFFENSEFRONT-7TEXAS STATE DEFENSE USA RUNNING BACKSn=828% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TXST FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS53% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556341%5%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TESOUTH ALABAMA OFFENSESECONDARYTEXAS STATE DEFENSE USA PASS CATCHERSn=2417% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TXST SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM72% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
USA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TXST
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−25
−16
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
USA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TXST
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
USA
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TXST
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS56.1%
59.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS64.0%
64.6%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.3%
0.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = USA, ORANGE = TXST) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE