SAT 19:00 ET|BEN HILL GRIFFIN STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP4|O/U48.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
24
13-1
86
79
100
79%
43
—
27.5
-245
-6.5
HOME
15
5-7
90
89
56
37%
58
—
21.0
+205
+6.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALFSU24—FLA15
CLOSED FSU -6.5TOTAL 48.5FSU COVERED · 39 POINTS · UNDER
FSU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
FLA
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 13 FIELD n=65
MARKET
TOTAL48.5
SPREADFSU -6.5
IMPLIED — FSU27.5
IMPLIED — FLA21.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
54FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT10 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 10 positions on a 65-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
FSURECORD OVERSTATES
13-0ACTUALvs11.4-1.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+21.1
FLORIDA STATE won 13 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 11.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
FLARECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.2-5.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+0.8
FLORIDA won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERFLORIDA STATEFLORIDA2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE49%Camren McDonaldTE · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMycah PittmanPORTAL · UTAH · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONOntaria WilsonWR · 11% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB34%Derrick McLendonPORTAL · COLORADO · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBrendan GantPORTAL · COLORADO · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
OL34%Dillan GibbonsOL · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJazston TurnetineOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB31%Jammie RobinsonDB · 18% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONOmarion CooperPORTAL · COLORADO · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL30%Robert CooperDT · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONLeonard Warner IIIDE · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJarrett JacksonPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB23%Treshaun WardPORTAL · KANSAS STATE · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
QB1%Gino EnglishPORTAL · GARDNER-WEBB · <1% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TEJaheim Bell · PORTAL ★4 · SOUTH CAROLINAKeon Coleman · PORTAL ★4 · MICHIGAN STATEKyle Morlock · PORTAL ★4 · SHORTER3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
LBBlake Nichelson · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
OLJeremiah Byers · PORTAL ★4 · UTEPCasey Roddick · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADOKeiondre Jones · PORTAL ★3 · AUBURN2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBFentrell Cypress · PORTAL ★4 · VIRGINIAConrad Hussey · SIGNEE ★4K.J. Kirkland · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLBraden Fiske · PORTAL ★4 · WESTERN MICHIGANGilber Edmond · PORTAL ★4 · SOUTH CAROLINADarrell Jackson · PORTAL ★4 · MIAMI2 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBSamuel Singleton Jr. · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
QBBrock Glenn · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · FLORIDA STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
55.857 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
50.944 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
58.764 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB8383528763 OF 6 GRADED
RB6666879076 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE757585382618 OF 26 GRADED
OL616175502018 OF 20 GRADED
DL858579752322 OF 23 GRADED
LB82827990118 OF 11 GRADED
DB787880742323 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE86th86
BLUE-CHIP RATIO36%85
RECRUITING CLASS#19 · 9/17 BC86
CLASS RANK TREND+3 · 3 CYCLES56
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP+3 · 11 IN / 23 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX38%58
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
FLABILLY NAPIER2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4646
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1212
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
FSUMIKE NORVELL4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4141
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
8181
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESFSU OFFENSEFLA OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBFLORIDA STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEFLORIDA DEFENSE FSU QUARTERBACKSn=613% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FLA DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 56 PLAYERS37% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLFLORIDA STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7FLORIDA DEFENSE FSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2050% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FLA FRONT-7n=35 · 2 ROOMS41% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBFLORIDA STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7FLORIDA DEFENSE FSU RUNNING BACKSn=710% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FLA FRONT-72 ROOMS · 35 PLAYERS41% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555957%50%LINEBACKERSLB
0.455362%55%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEFLORIDA STATE OFFENSESECONDARYFLORIDA DEFENSE FSU PASS CATCHERSn=2662% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FLA SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM34% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
FSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FLA
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−8
+19
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
FSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FLA
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
FSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FLA
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS56.5%
56.1%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS67.2%
70.2%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.0%
2.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = FSU, ORANGE = FLA) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE