SAT 21:00 ET|MACKAY STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP18|O/U42.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
42
9-4
11
34
44
74%
2
—
26.8
-450
-11.5
HOME
6
2-10
28
1
37
23%
39
—
15.3
+335
+11.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALWYO42—NEV6
CLOSED WYO -11.5TOTAL 42.0WYO COVERED · 48 POINTS · OVER
WYO
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
NEV
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 13 FIELD n=65
MARKET
TOTAL42.0
SPREADWYO -11.5
IMPLIED — WYO26.8
IMPLIED — NEV15.3
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
39FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT7 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 7 positions on a 65-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
WYORECORD OVERSTATES
8-4ACTUALvs6.9-5.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+3.2
WYOMING won 8 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NEVRECORD MATCHES
2-10ACTUALvs2.1-9.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-16.1
NEVADA won 2 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERWYOMINGNEVADA2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
RB74%Titus SwenRB · 69% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJordon VaughnPORTAL · ABILENE CHRISTIAN · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL52%Eric AbojeiG · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONZach WattsG · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONEmmanuel PregnonPORTAL · USC · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE42%Parker ChristensenTE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJackson MarcotteTE · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJoshua HardemanPORTAL · HOUSTON · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
DB29%Cam StonePORTAL · HAWAI'I · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKeonte GlintonPORTAL · NEW MEXICO STATE · 8% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL17%Oluwaseyi OmotoshoPORTAL · OREGON STATE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
LB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
RBHarrison Waylee · PORTAL ★2 · NORTHERN ILLINOISKeany Parks · SIGNEE ★3REFILLED
OLBrandt Rice · SIGNEE ★3Quinn Grovesteen-Matchey · SIGNEE ★2PARTIAL
WR/TEDevin Boddie Jr. · PORTAL ★3 · VANDERBILTAyir Asante · PORTAL ★2 · HOLY CROSSJustin Stevenson · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DBChauncey Carter · SIGNEE ★3Naz Hill · SIGNEE ★3Ian Bell · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
DLLucas Samsula · SIGNEE ★3Dante Drake · SIGNEE ★3Tell Wade · SIGNEE ★22 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
QBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
LBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · WYOMING
CARRIED COMPOSITE
74.398 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
59.064 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
81.1100 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB47471010051 OF 5 GRADED
RB45452636126 OF 12 GRADED
WR/TE424220852115 OF 21 GRADED
OL353535731810 OF 18 GRADED
DL383831832114 OF 21 GRADED
LB333343100108 OF 10 GRADED
DB454532862513 OF 25 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE11th11
BLUE-CHIP RATIO0%4
RECRUITING CLASS#110 · 0/19 BC18
CLASS RANK TREND0 · 3 CYCLES50
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 3 IN / 16 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 8th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX32%30
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NEVKEN WILSON2TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
2727
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3939
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
WYOCRAIG BOHL8TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
99
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESWYO OFFENSENEV OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBWYOMING OFFENSEFULL DEFENSENEVADA DEFENSE WYO QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NEV DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 58 PLAYERS31% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLWYOMING OFFENSEFRONT-7NEVADA DEFENSE WYO OFFENSIVE LINEn=1827% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NEV FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS31% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBWYOMING OFFENSEFRONT-7NEVADA DEFENSE WYO RUNNING BACKSn=1264% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NEV FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS30% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553965%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEWYOMING OFFENSESECONDARYNEVADA DEFENSE WYO PASS CATCHERSn=2115% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NEV SECONDARYn=25 · 1 ROOM32% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
WYO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NEV
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−34
+25
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
WYO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NEV
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
WYO
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NEV
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS60.9%
60.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS52.0%
69.2%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.9%
0.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = WYO, ORANGE = NEV) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE