SAT 15:00 ET|ALLEGIANT STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP34|O/U62.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
44
8-6
48
67
61
92%
52
—
32.3
-150
-2.5
HOME
20
9-5
14
57
8
62%
64
—
29.8
+130
+2.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALBOIS44—UNLV20
CLOSED BOIS -2.5TOTAL 62.0BOIS COVERED · 64 POINTS · OVER
BOIS
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
UNLV
BOIS
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
UNLV
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 14 FIELD n=10
MARKET
TOTAL62.0
SPREADBOIS -2.5
IMPLIED — BOIS32.3
IMPLIED — UNLV29.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
64FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT0 SLOTSBoth rankings put this game in the same place on the week's board.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
BOISRECORD MATCHES
8-5ACTUALvs8.6-4.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+8.1
BOISE STATE won 8 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 8.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
UNLVRECORD MATCHES
9-4ACTUALvs8.3-4.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+7.3
UNLV won 9 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 8.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERBOISE STATEUNLV2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
DB51%Caleb BiggersCB · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJL SkinnerS · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyreque JonesCB · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB50%Ezekiel NoaLB · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONGeorge TarlasLB · 15% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDeven WrightPORTAL · TEXAS STATE · 5% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL48%John OjukwuOL · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKekaniokoa Holomalia-GonzalezOL · 14% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONWill FarrarOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL47%Scott MatlockDT · 23% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONJackson CravensPORTAL · BYU · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDivine ObichereDT · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB29%Hank BachmeierPORTAL · LOUISIANA TECH · 25% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE29%Tyneil HopperPORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE · 16% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKurt RafdalTE · 7% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONDavis KoetterWR · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
RB6%Elelyon NoaRB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
DBNick Hawthorne · SIGNEE ★3Gabe Tahir · SIGNEE ★3Cole Miller · SIGNEE ★2PARTIAL
LBChase Martin · SIGNEE ★3Wyatt Milkovic · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
OLJason Steele · SIGNEE ★3Carson Rasmussen · SIGNEE ★3Kyle Cox · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
DLHoward Brown · PORTAL ★3 · IOWA STATEMichael Madrie · SIGNEE ★3Demanuel Brown · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALREFILLED
QBCJ Tiller · SIGNEE ★3Max Cutforth · SIGNEE ★2INTACT
WR/TEChase Penry · PORTAL ★3 · COLORADOCayden Dawson · SIGNEE ★3Oliver Fisher · SIGNEE ★32 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
RBBreezy Dubar · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · BOISE STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
56.864 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
66.678 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
50.641 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6060629453 OF 5 GRADED
RB7373648975 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE454556812213 OF 22 GRADED
OL515153931812 OF 18 GRADED
DL606053871913 OF 19 GRADED
LB55555194129 OF 12 GRADED
DB454555782115 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE48th48
BLUE-CHIP RATIO1%9
RECRUITING CLASS#67 · 0/25 BC50
CLASS RANK TREND+3 · 3 CYCLES56
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP-1 · 9 IN / 17 OUT—
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX36%50
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
UNLVBARRY ODOMFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4040
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4747
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
BOISANDY AVALOS3TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1616
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESBOIS OFFENSEUNLV OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBBOISE STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEUNLV DEFENSE BOIS QUARTERBACKSn=56% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNLV DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS43% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLBOISE STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7UNLV DEFENSE BOIS OFFENSIVE LINEn=187% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNLV FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS40% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBBOISE STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7UNLV DEFENSE BOIS RUNNING BACKSn=711% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNLV FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS40% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554161%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEBOISE STATE OFFENSESECONDARYUNLV DEFENSE BOIS PASS CATCHERSn=2219% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
UNLV SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM46% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
BOIS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNLV
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−21
−44
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
BOIS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNLV
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
BOIS
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
UNLV
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS65.4%
64.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS60.6%
62.2%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.8%
0.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = BOIS, ORANGE = UNLV) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE