SAT 20:00 ET|BANK OF AMERICA STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP7|O/U45.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
6
10-4
80
85
93
23%
54
—
23.5
+140
-1.5
HOME
16
13-1
86
79
100
79%
43
—
22.0
-165
+1.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2023CONSENSUS · BOVADA
FINALLOU6—FSU16
CLOSED LOU -1.5TOTAL 45.5FSU COVERED · 22 POINTS · UNDER
LOU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
FSU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT7 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 14 FIELD n=10
MARKET
TOTAL45.5
SPREADLOU -1.5
IMPLIED — LOU23.5
IMPLIED — FSU22.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
43FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT1 SLOTThe two rankings disagree by 1 position on a 10-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2023 · FULL SEASON
LOURECORD MATCHES
10-3ACTUALvs9.7-3.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.3 W
ONE SCORE RECORD5-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+11.2
LOUISVILLE won 10 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 9.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
FSURECORD OVERSTATES
13-0ACTUALvs11.4-1.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+21.1
FLORIDA STATE won 13 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 11.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERLOUISVILLEFLORIDA STATE2023 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
WR/TE75%Marshon FordTE · 20% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTyler HudsonWR · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONBraden SmithPORTAL · CINCINNATI · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB72%Yasir AbdullahLB · 22% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMomo SanogoLB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONMonty MontgomeryPORTAL · OLE MISS · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
QB62%Malik CunninghamQB · 62% OF ROOM PARTICIPATION
OL46%Caleb ChandlerOL · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrevor ReidOL · 13% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONAdonis BooneOL · 10% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
RB42%Tiyon EvansRB · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONTrey CooleyPORTAL · GEORGIA TECH · 17% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB36%Kei'Trel ClarkDB · 19% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONKenderick DuncanDB · 9% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONChandler JonesDB · 6% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DL27%YaYa DiabyDL · 21% OF ROOM PARTICIPATIONROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
WR/TEJamari Thrash · PORTAL ★4 · GEORGIA STATEKevin Coleman · PORTAL ★3 · JACKSON STATEWilliam Fowles · SIGNEE ★31 MORE ARRIVALPARTIAL
LBKeith Brown · PORTAL ★3 · OREGONStanquan Clark · SIGNEE ★4PARTIAL
QBBrady Allen · PORTAL ★4 · PURDUEPierce Clarkson · SIGNEE ★4REFILLED
OLMadden Sanker · SIGNEE ★4Luke Burgess · SIGNEE ★3Joe Crocker · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
RBKeyjuan Brown · SIGNEE ★3PARTIAL
DBMarcus Washington · PORTAL ★4 · GEORGIAMarquis Groves-Killebrew · PORTAL ★4 · TEXAS A&MStorm Duck · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATE3 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
DLRodney McGraw · PORTAL ★3 · PENN STATET.J. Capers · SIGNEE ★4AJ Green · SIGNEE ★43 MORE ARRIVALSREFILLED
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · LOUISVILLE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
45.320 PCTL
CARRIED OFFENSE
45.027 PCTL
CARRIED DEFENSE
45.531 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB535377185 OF 8 GRADED
RB7373686376 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE606052552216 OF 22 GRADED
OL595969572018 OF 20 GRADED
DL808059741814 OF 18 GRADED
LB666664691210 OF 12 GRADED
DB676762422116 OF 21 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE80th80
BLUE-CHIP RATIO26%77
RECRUITING CLASS#31 · 7/19 BC77
CLASS RANK TREND+7 · 3 CYCLES64
PORTAL NET BLUE-CHIP0 · 25 IN / 24 OUT—
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
DEV TRANSITION MIX33%32
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
FSUMIKE NORVELL4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5252
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7070
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
LOUJEFF BROHMFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8585
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2121
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESLOU OFFENSEFSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBLOUISVILLE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEFLORIDA STATE DEFENSE LOU QUARTERBACKSn=899% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 57 PLAYERS23% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLLOUISVILLE OFFENSEFRONT-7FLORIDA STATE DEFENSE LOU OFFENSIVE LINEn=2043% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FSU FRONT-7n=34 · 2 ROOMS19% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBLOUISVILLE OFFENSEFRONT-7FLORIDA STATE DEFENSE LOU RUNNING BACKSn=737% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 34 PLAYERS19% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.558575%26%LINEBACKERSLB
0.458290%18%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TELOUISVILLE OFFENSESECONDARYFLORIDA STATE DEFENSE LOU PASS CATCHERSn=2245% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FSU SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM26% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
LOU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FSU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+4
−8
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
LOU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FSU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
LOU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FSU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS60.7%
56.5%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS68.8%
67.2%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.5%
1.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = LOU, ORANGE = FSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2023, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE