THU 19:00 ET|NEYLAND STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP74|O/U66.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
10
5-7
13
4
68
37%
80
2
15.5
—
+35.5
HOME
59
11-2
87
99
65
76%
87
84
51.0
—
-35.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2022CONSENSUS · CONSENSUS
FINALBALL10—TENN59
CLOSED TENN -35.5TOTAL 66.5TENN COVERED · 69 POINTS · OVER
BALL
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
TENN
BALL
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
TENN
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2022 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=46
MARKET
TOTAL66.5
SPREADTENN -35.5
IMPLIED — BALL15.5
IMPLIED — TENN51.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
51FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT17 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 17 positions on a 46-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2022 · FULL SEASON
BALLRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs5.0-7.0FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.0 W
ONE SCORE RECORD4-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME-3.7
BALL STATE won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.0. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TENNRECORD MATCHES
10-2ACTUALvs10.1-1.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+23.8
TENNESSEE won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERBALL STATETENNESSEE2022 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%Drew PlittQB · SHARE NOT MEASURED
RB0%Cody RudyFB · SHARE NOT MEASURED
WR/TE0%Hassan LittlesWR · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
DL0%Emeka JillaniDL · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB0%Jimmy DawLB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB0%Bryce CosbyS · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBKaden Cobb · SIGNEE ★3Maximus Webster · SIGNEE ★2INTACT
RBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
WR/TECam Pickett · SIGNEE ★3Max Sullivan · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
OLNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
DLDakari Frazier · SIGNEE ★3Dylan Graber · SIGNEE ★3Karl Odrick · SIGNEE ★2INTACT
LBCaden Johnson · SIGNEE ★3Ashton Carroll · SIGNEE ★3Danny Royster · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DBBlair Schonhorst · SIGNEE ★2INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · BALL STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB60607810052 OF 5 GRADED
RB65659510084 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE424255472513 OF 25 GRADED
OL606028141610 OF 16 GRADED
DL232325821513 OF 15 GRADED
LB39395069179 OF 17 GRADED
DB454539751913 OF 19 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE13th13
BLUE-CHIP RATIO1%10
RECRUITING CLASS#97 · 0/17 BC28
CLASS RANK TREND+25 · 3 CYCLES100
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 7th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX48%99
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
TENNJOSH HEUPEL2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6969
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4949
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
BALLMIKE NEU7TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6060
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3434
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESBALL OFFENSETENN OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBBALL STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSETENNESSEE DEFENSE BALL QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TENN DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 63 PLAYERS14% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLBALL STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7TENNESSEE DEFENSE BALL OFFENSIVE LINEn=1686% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TENN FRONT-7n=37 · 2 ROOMS12% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBBALL STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7TENNESSEE DEFENSE BALL RUNNING BACKSn=80% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TENN FRONT-72 ROOMS · 37 PLAYERS12% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555886%43%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEBALL STATE OFFENSESECONDARYTENNESSEE DEFENSE BALL PASS CATCHERSn=2553% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TENN SECONDARYn=26 · 1 ROOM16% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
BALL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TENN
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−5
−11
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
BALL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TENN
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
BALL
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
TENN
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS54.0%
55.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS75.0%
59.9%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.8%
3.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = BALL, ORANGE = TENN) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2022, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE