SAT 15:30 ET|SNAPDRAGON STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP48|O/U46.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
38
5-7
66
52
8
56%
37
82
20.0
—
+6.5
HOME
20
7-6
18
15
52
34%
6
25
26.5
—
-6.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2022CONSENSUS · CONSENSUS
FINALARIZ38—SDSU20
CLOSED SDSU -6.5TOTAL 46.5ARIZ COVERED · 58 POINTS · OVER
ARIZ
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
SDSU
ARIZ
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
SDSU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2022 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=46
MARKET
TOTAL46.5
SPREADSDSU -6.5
IMPLIED — ARIZ20.0
IMPLIED — SDSU26.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
43FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT9 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 9 positions on a 46-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2022 · FULL SEASON
ARIZRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs4.8-7.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-5.7
ARIZONA won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
SDSURECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs6.4-5.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.6 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.2
SAN DIEGO STATE won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERARIZONASAN DIEGO STATE2022 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%Luke AshworthQB · SHARE NOT MEASURED
RB0%Darrius SmithRB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE0%Thomas Reid IIIWR · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL0%Josh McCauleyOL · SHARE NOT MEASURED
DL0%Mohamed DialloDL · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB0%Anthony PandyLB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB0%McKenzie BarnesDB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBNoah Fifita · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
RBRayshon Luke · SIGNEE ★4Jonah Coleman · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
WR/TETetairoa McMillan · SIGNEE ★4Keyan Burnett · SIGNEE ★4Kevin Green Jr. · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
OLJonah Savaiinaea · SIGNEE ★3Grayson Stovall · SIGNEE ★3Wendell Moe Jr. · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DLIsaiah Ward · SIGNEE ★3Russell Davis II · SIGNEE ★3Jacob Rich Kongaika · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
LBSterling Lane II · SIGNEE ★4Tyler Martin · SIGNEE ★3Jacob Manu · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DBEphesians Prysock · SIGNEE ★4Tacario Davis · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · ARIZONA
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB636384062 OF 6 GRADED
RB69696251105 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE54546229209 OF 20 GRADED
OL49495013159 OF 15 GRADED
DL282867551711 OF 17 GRADED
LB28283441167 OF 16 GRADED
DB474768902013 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE66th66
BLUE-CHIP RATIO12%62
RECRUITING CLASS#22 · 5/30 BC84
CLASS RANK TREND+40 · 3 CYCLES100
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX26%51
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
SDSUBRADY HOKE3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
1414
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2020
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ARIZJEDD FISCH2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8787
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6363
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESARIZ OFFENSESDSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBARIZONA OFFENSEFULL DEFENSESAN DIEGO STATE DEFENSE ARIZ QUARTERBACKSn=6100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SDSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 52 PLAYERS21% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLARIZONA OFFENSEFRONT-7SAN DIEGO STATE DEFENSE ARIZ OFFENSIVE LINEn=1587% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SDSU FRONT-7n=31 · 2 ROOMS26% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBARIZONA OFFENSEFRONT-7SAN DIEGO STATE DEFENSE ARIZ RUNNING BACKSn=1049% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SDSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 31 PLAYERS26% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555676%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEARIZONA OFFENSESECONDARYSAN DIEGO STATE DEFENSE ARIZ PASS CATCHERSn=2071% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
SDSU SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM16% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ARIZ
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SDSU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+23
−23
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ARIZ
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SDSU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ARIZ
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
SDSU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS48.4%
64.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS77.5%
64.7%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.3%
0.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ARIZ, ORANGE = SDSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2022, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE