SAT 15:30 ET|HUSKIE STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP38|O/U58.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
38
5-7
59
49
35
64%
25
100
28.0
—
+2.5
HOME
28
3-9
21
53
5
81%
39
13
30.5
—
-2.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2022CONSENSUS · CONSENSUS
FINALVAN38—NIU28
CLOSED NIU -2.5TOTAL 58.5VAN COVERED · 66 POINTS · OVER
VAN
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
NIU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2022 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 3 FIELD n=50
MARKET
TOTAL58.5
SPREADNIU -2.5
IMPLIED — VAN28.0
IMPLIED — NIU30.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
60FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT7 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 7 positions on a 50-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2022 · FULL SEASON
VANRECORD OVERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs3.5-8.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-11.4
VANDERBILT won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
NIURECORD UNDERSTATES
3-9ACTUALvs4.7-7.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-5
POINT MARGIN / GAME-5.5
NORTHERN ILLINOIS won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERVANDERBILTNORTHERN ILLINOIS2022 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%Jeremy MoussaQB · SHARE NOT MEASURED
RB0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
WR/TE0%Cam JohnsonPORTAL · ARIZONA STATE · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
DL0%Raashaan Wilkins Jr.PORTAL · ILLINOIS · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB0%Feleti AfemuiLB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB0%Brendon HarrisPORTAL · WAKE FOREST · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBAJ Swann · SIGNEE ★4Drew Dickey · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
RBNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
WR/TEJayden McGowan · SIGNEE ★3Daveon Walker · SIGNEE ★3Cole Spence · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
OLNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
DLDarren Agu · SIGNEE ★3Bradley Mann · SIGNEE ★3Yilanan Ouattara · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
LBDaniel Martin · SIGNEE ★4Langston Patterson · SIGNEE ★3Bryce Cowan · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DBJadais Richard · SIGNEE ★4Quantaves Gaskins · SIGNEE ★3Jameson Wharton · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · VANDERBILT
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB5555404462 OF 6 GRADED
RB47477390105 OF 10 GRADED
WR/TE595970751710 OF 17 GRADED
OL575746121813 OF 18 GRADED
DL404062721612 OF 16 GRADED
LB41417271117 OF 11 GRADED
DB525249662316 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE59th59
BLUE-CHIP RATIO9%55
RECRUITING CLASS#32 · 3/27 BC77
CLASS RANK TREND+20 · 3 CYCLES90
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX14%13
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
NIUTHOMAS HAMMOCK4TH SEASON3 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
77
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5959
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
VANCLARK LEA2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6060
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7878
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESVAN OFFENSENIU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBVANDERBILT OFFENSEFULL DEFENSENORTHERN ILLINOIS DEFENSE VAN QUARTERBACKSn=656% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NIU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 59 PLAYERS15% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLVANDERBILT OFFENSEFRONT-7NORTHERN ILLINOIS DEFENSE VAN OFFENSIVE LINEn=1888% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NIU FRONT-7n=37 · 2 ROOMS13% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBVANDERBILT OFFENSEFRONT-7NORTHERN ILLINOIS DEFENSE VAN RUNNING BACKSn=1010% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NIU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 37 PLAYERS12% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553681%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEVANDERBILT OFFENSESECONDARYNORTHERN ILLINOIS DEFENSE VAN PASS CATCHERSn=1725% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
NIU SECONDARYn=22 · 1 ROOM17% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
VAN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NIU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+22
+11
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
VAN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NIU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
VAN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
NIU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS63.8%
70.0%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS61.2%
67.3%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE2.1%
1.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = VAN, ORANGE = NIU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2022, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE