SAT 20:00 ET|DOAK CAMPBELL STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP18|O/U48.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
14
3-9
70
18
62
64%
33
67
15.0
—
+18.5
HOME
44
10-3
88
94
70
74%
60
59
33.5
—
-18.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2022CONSENSUS · CONSENSUS
FINALBC14—FSU44
CLOSED FSU -18.5TOTAL 48.5FSU COVERED · 58 POINTS · OVER
BC
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
FSU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2022 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 4 FIELD n=60
MARKET
TOTAL48.5
SPREADFSU -18.5
IMPLIED — BC15.0
IMPLIED — FSU33.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
48FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT15 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 15 positions on a 60-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2022 · FULL SEASON
BCRECORD MATCHES
3-9ACTUALvs2.6-9.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-12.6
BOSTON COLLEGE won 3 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 2.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
FSURECORD MATCHES
9-3ACTUALvs9.7-2.3FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+16.5
FLORIDA STATE won 9 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 9.7. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERBOSTON COLLEGEFLORIDA STATE2022 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%Dennis GroselQB · SHARE NOT MEASURED
RB0%Peter StehrRB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE0%Kobay WhiteWR · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
DL0%TJ RayamDT · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB0%Isaiah Graham-MobleyLB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB0%Brandon SebastianDB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBPeter Delaportas · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
RBCam Barfield · SIGNEE ★3Alex Broome · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
WR/TEJoseph Griffin Jr. · SIGNEE ★4Matt Ragan · SIGNEE ★3Jeremiah Franklin · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
OLNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
DLKwan Williams · SIGNEE ★4Gilbert Tongrongou · SIGNEE ★3Joshua Hardy · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
LBEdwin Kolenge · SIGNEE ★3Daveon Crouch · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DBSione Hala · SIGNEE ★4Amari Jackson · SIGNEE ★3Isaiah Farris · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · BOSTON COLLEGE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB36364410072 OF 7 GRADED
RB3939596975 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE454558532213 OF 22 GRADED
OL323267301713 OF 17 GRADED
DL676745741916 OF 19 GRADED
LB565645100126 OF 12 GRADED
DB595974831712 OF 17 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE70th70
BLUE-CHIP RATIO15%68
RECRUITING CLASS#40 · 3/23 BC71
CLASS RANK TREND+23 · 3 CYCLES96
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX22%37
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
FSUMIKE NORVELL3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5252
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7070
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
BCJEFF HAFLEY3TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
5656
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5959
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESBC OFFENSEFSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBBOSTON COLLEGE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEFLORIDA STATE DEFENSE BC QUARTERBACKSn=70% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 54 PLAYERS24% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLBOSTON COLLEGE OFFENSEFRONT-7FLORIDA STATE DEFENSE BC OFFENSIVE LINEn=1770% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FSU FRONT-7n=33 · 2 ROOMS34% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBBOSTON COLLEGE OFFENSEFRONT-7FLORIDA STATE DEFENSE BC RUNNING BACKSn=731% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 33 PLAYERS33% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556560%33%LINEBACKERSLB
0.456976%33%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEBOSTON COLLEGE OFFENSESECONDARYFLORIDA STATE DEFENSE BC PASS CATCHERSn=2247% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FSU SECONDARYn=21 · 1 ROOM16% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
BC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FSU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+55
+4
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
BC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FSU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
BC
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FSU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS48.2%
62.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS80.5%
63.6%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.1%
1.7%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = BC, ORANGE = FSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2022, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE