SAT 16:00 ET|SPARTAN STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP23|O/U64.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
49
11-2
99
98
87
75%
47
75
45.8
—
-27.0
HOME
20
5-7
76
50
33
71%
42
79
18.8
—
+27.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2022CONSENSUS · CONSENSUS
FINALOSU49—MSU20
CLOSED OSU -27.0TOTAL 64.5OSU COVERED · 69 POINTS · OVER
OSU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
MSU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2022 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 6 FIELD n=57
MARKET
TOTAL64.5
SPREADOSU -27.0
IMPLIED — OSU45.8
IMPLIED — MSU18.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
54FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT11 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 11 positions on a 57-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
MIDDLING × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2022 · FULL SEASON
OSURECORD MATCHES
11-1ACTUALvs10.6-1.4FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD0-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+25.3
OHIO STATE won 11 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.6. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MSURECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs5.2-6.8FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-3.0
MICHIGAN STATE won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 5.2. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGEROHIO STATEMICHIGAN STATE2022 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%Jack Miller IIIPORTAL · FLORIDA · SHARE NOT MEASURED
RB0%Master Teague IIIRB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE0%Chris OlaveWR · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
DL0%Jacolbe CowanPORTAL · NORTH CAROLINA · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB0%K'Vaughan PopeLB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB0%Sevyn BanksPORTAL · LSU · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBDevin Brown · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
RBDallan Hayden · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
WR/TEKaleb Brown · SIGNEE ★4Kyion Grayes · SIGNEE ★4Caleb Burton III · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
OLNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
DLKenyatta Jackson Jr. · SIGNEE ★4Omari Abor · SIGNEE ★4Caden Curry · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
LBC.J. Hicks · SIGNEE ★5Gabe Powers · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
DBSonny Styles · SIGNEE ★5Jyaire Brown · SIGNEE ★4Ryan Turner · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · OHIO STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB76769810052 OF 5 GRADED
RB6464897185 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE787893982619 OF 26 GRADED
OL78788602013 OF 20 GRADED
DL747492942016 OF 20 GRADED
LB75759196138 OF 13 GRADED
DB444483702012 OF 20 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE99th99
BLUE-CHIP RATIO79%99
RECRUITING CLASS#4 · 20/21 BC98
CLASS RANK TREND+1 · 3 CYCLES52
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 4th YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX15%15
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MSUMEL TUCKER3TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
7878
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
9393
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
OSURYAN DAY4TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8181
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6565
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESOSU OFFENSEMSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBOHIO STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEMICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE OSU QUARTERBACKSn=50% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS27% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLOHIO STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7MICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE OSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=20100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSU FRONT-7n=29 · 2 ROOMS25% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBOHIO STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7MICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE OSU RUNNING BACKSn=829% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 29 PLAYERS26% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555679%20%LINEBACKERSLB
0.456168%21%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEOHIO STATE OFFENSESECONDARYMICHIGAN STATE DEFENSE OSU PASS CATCHERSn=262% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MSU SECONDARYn=20 · 1 ROOM27% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
OSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾0
+26
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
OSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
OSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MSU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS59.2%
54.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS69.3%
74.0%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE3.7%
0.7%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = OSU, ORANGE = MSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2022, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE