SAT 22:30 ET|CALIFORNIA MEMORIAL STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP19|O/U54.5COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
28
11-2
85
97
12
83%
91
70
31.0
—
-7.5
HOME
21
4-8
66
13
36
21%
32
88
23.5
—
+7.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2022CONSENSUS · CONSENSUS
FINALWASH28—CAL21
CLOSED WASH -7.5TOTAL 54.5CAL COVERED · 49 POINTS · UNDER
WASH
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
CAL
WASH
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
CAL
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2022 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 8 FIELD n=52
MARKET
TOTAL54.5
SPREADWASH -7.5
IMPLIED — WASH31.0
IMPLIED — CAL23.5
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
59FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT15 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 15 positions on a 52-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2022 · FULL SEASON
WASHRECORD OVERSTATES
10-2ACTUALvs8.9-3.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+14.4
WASHINGTON won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 8.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
CALRECORD MATCHES
4-8ACTUALvs4.9-7.1FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.9 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-5
POINT MARGIN / GAME-3.9
CALIFORNIA won 4 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.9. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERWASHINGTONCALIFORNIA2022 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%Patrick O'BrienQB · SHARE NOT MEASURED
RB0%Kamari PleasantRB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE0%Sawyer RacanelliWR · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL0%Luke WattenbergOL · SHARE NOT MEASURED
DL0%Draco BynumDL · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB0%Jordan LoloheaLB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION4 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB0%Brendan Radley-HilesDB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBJackson Jones · SIGNEE ★3Camdyn Stiegeler · SIGNEE ★2INTACT
RBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
WR/TERyan Otton · SIGNEE ★4Denzel Boston · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
OLParker Brailsford · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DLLance Holtzclaw · SIGNEE ★3Armon Parker · SIGNEE ★3Jayvon Parker · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
LBAustin Harnetiaux · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DBTristan Dunn · SIGNEE ★3Jay Green · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · WASHINGTON
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB767674483 OF 8 GRADED
RB3636684476 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE595976902419 OF 24 GRADED
OL72727501713 OF 17 GRADED
DL535366892014 OF 20 GRADED
LB444454531110 OF 11 GRADED
DB424278802216 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE85th85
BLUE-CHIP RATIO31%81
RECRUITING CLASS#96 · 1/14 BC29
CLASS RANK TREND-80 · 3 CYCLES0
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
DEV TRANSITION MIX30%68
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
CALJUSTIN WILCOX6TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9191
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4747
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
WASHKALEN DEBOERFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9595
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
7373
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESWASH OFFENSECAL OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBWASHINGTON OFFENSEFULL DEFENSECALIFORNIA DEFENSE WASH QUARTERBACKSn=896% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CAL DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 51 PLAYERS44% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLWASHINGTON OFFENSEFRONT-7CALIFORNIA DEFENSE WASH OFFENSIVE LINEn=17100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CAL FRONT-7n=34 · 2 ROOMS47% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBWASHINGTON OFFENSEFRONT-7CALIFORNIA DEFENSE WASH RUNNING BACKSn=756% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CAL FRONT-72 ROOMS · 34 PLAYERS50% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.552278%14%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEWASHINGTON OFFENSESECONDARYCALIFORNIA DEFENSE WASH PASS CATCHERSn=2410% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
CAL SECONDARYn=17 · 1 ROOM42% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
WASH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CAL
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−2
+23
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
WASH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CAL
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
WASH
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
CAL
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS45.4%
42.9%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS73.2%
79.3%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.0%
0.0%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = WASH, ORANGE = CAL) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2022, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE