SAT 12:00 ET|JORDAN-HARE STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP7|O/U60.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
41
7-6
82
85
25
68%
81
82
32.0
—
-4.0
HOME
27
5-7
88
76
69
45%
29
88
28.0
—
+4.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2022CONSENSUS · CONSENSUS
FINALARK41—AUB27
CLOSED ARK -4.0TOTAL 60.0ARK COVERED · 68 POINTS · OVER
ARK
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
AUB
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2022 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 9 FIELD n=47
MARKET
TOTAL60.0
SPREADARK -4.0
IMPLIED — ARK32.0
IMPLIED — AUB28.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
59FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT1 SLOTThe two rankings disagree by 1 position on a 47-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2022 · FULL SEASON
ARKRECORD MATCHES
6-6ACTUALvs6.5-5.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.9
ARKANSAS won 6 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
AUBRECORD MATCHES
5-7ACTUALvs4.8-7.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.2 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME-4.8
AUBURN won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 4.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERARKANSASAUBURN2022 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%John Stephen JonesQB · SHARE NOT MEASURED
RB0%T.J. HammondsRB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE0%Blake KernTE · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION6 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL0%Shane CleninOL · SHARE NOT MEASURED
DL0%Markell UtseyDL · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB0%Deon EdwardsLB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB0%Montaric BrownDB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBRykar Acebo · SIGNEEINTACT
RBJames Jointer Jr. · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
WR/TEIsaiah Sategna · SIGNEE ★4Quincey McAdoo · SIGNEE ★4Sam Mbake · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
OLE'Marion Harris · SIGNEE ★4Andrew Chamblee · SIGNEE ★4Patrick Kutas · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
DLNico Davillier · SIGNEE ★3JJ Hollingsworth · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
LBMani Powell · SIGNEE ★3Jordan Crook · SIGNEE ★3Kaden Henley · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DBAnthony Brown · SIGNEE ★3Jaylen Lewis · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · ARKANSAS
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB8383889132 OF 3 GRADED
RB7474938085 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE696989552413 OF 24 GRADED
OL4444690199 OF 19 GRADED
DL575769591810 OF 18 GRADED
LB73738845146 OF 14 GRADED
DB535370622214 OF 22 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE82nd82
BLUE-CHIP RATIO32%84
RECRUITING CLASS#28 · 7/27 BC80
CLASS RANK TREND+2 · 3 CYCLES54
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX28%61
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
AUBBRYAN HARSIN2TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
55
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
1212
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
ARKSAM PITTMAN3TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3636
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
3333
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESARK OFFENSEAUB OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBARKANSAS OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEAUBURN DEFENSE ARK QUARTERBACKSn=39% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AUB DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 49 PLAYERS37% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLARKANSAS OFFENSEFRONT-7AUBURN DEFENSE ARK OFFENSIVE LINEn=19100% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AUB FRONT-7n=32 · 2 ROOMS24% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBARKANSAS OFFENSEFRONT-7AUBURN DEFENSE ARK RUNNING BACKSn=820% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AUB FRONT-72 ROOMS · 32 PLAYERS22% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.555361%38%LINEBACKERSLB
0.453899%44%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEARKANSAS OFFENSESECONDARYAUBURN DEFENSE ARK PASS CATCHERSn=2445% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
AUB SECONDARYn=17 · 1 ROOM47% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
ARK
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
AUB
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+3
+29
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
ARK
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
AUB
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
ARK
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
AUB
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS64.3%
66.4%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS55.2%
58.8%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.0%
2.3%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = ARK, ORANGE = AUB) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2022, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE