SAT 15:30 ET|JOHNNY "RED" FLOYD STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP23|O/U51.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
21
5-7
49
29
20
83%
77
—
28.3
—
-5.5
HOME
49
8-5
26
8
26
71%
88
—
22.8
—
+5.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2022CONSENSUS · CONSENSUS
FINALFAU21—MTSU49
CLOSED FAU -5.5TOTAL 51.0MTSU COVERED · 70 POINTS · OVER
FAU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
MTSU
FAU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
MTSU
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2022 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 12 FIELD n=61
MARKET
TOTAL51.0
SPREADFAU -5.5
IMPLIED — FAU28.3
IMPLIED — MTSU22.8
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
56FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT12 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 12 positions on a 61-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × FAST
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2022 · FULL SEASON
FAURECORD UNDERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs6.8-5.2FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-1.8 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-4
POINT MARGIN / GAME+3.2
FLORIDA ATLANTIC won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.8. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
MTSURECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs6.3-5.7FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+0.7 W
ONE SCORE RECORD1-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+1.1
MIDDLE TENNESSEE won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 6.3. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERFLORIDA ATLANTICMIDDLE TENNESSEE2022 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%Nick TrontiQB · SHARE NOT MEASURED
RB0%James CharlesRB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION2 FURTHER DEPARTURES
WR/TE0%D'Marcus AdamsPORTAL · SYRACUSE · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION7 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL0%NOBODY LEFTTHE WHOLE ROOM RETURNS
DL0%Marcel SouthallDT · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
LB0%Chase LasaterLB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
DB0%Jordan HelmS · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBNO STARTING ROLE OPENEDINTACT
RBMarquish Seabon Jr. · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
WR/TEJayshon Platt · SIGNEE ★3Donovan Giles · SIGNEE ★3A’Ceon Cobb · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
OLNO DEPARTURE TO REFILLINTACT
DLKareem Wilson · SIGNEE ★2INTACT
LBJaylen Wester · SIGNEE ★3Dearis Thomas · SIGNEE ★2INTACT
DBMichael Boone · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · FLORIDA ATLANTIC
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6666910041 OF 4 GRADED
RB6767419686 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE555572672116 OF 21 GRADED
OL676747191812 OF 18 GRADED
DL343443911613 OF 16 GRADED
LB444453341811 OF 18 GRADED
DB525250782314 OF 23 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE49th49
BLUE-CHIP RATIO7%48
RECRUITING CLASS#124 · 0/11 BC8
CLASS RANK TREND-51 · 3 CYCLES0
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 3rd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX27%59
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
MTSURICK STOCKSTILL7TH SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
8989
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
5050
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
FAUWILLIE TAGGART3TH SEASON1 SEASON · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
3030
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
2828
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESFAU OFFENSEMTSU OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBFLORIDA ATLANTIC OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEMIDDLE TENNESSEE DEFENSE FAU QUARTERBACKSn=40% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MTSU DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 44 PLAYERS19% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLFLORIDA ATLANTIC OFFENSEFRONT-7MIDDLE TENNESSEE DEFENSE FAU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1881% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MTSU FRONT-7n=28 · 2 ROOMS27% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBFLORIDA ATLANTIC OFFENSEFRONT-7MIDDLE TENNESSEE DEFENSE FAU RUNNING BACKSn=84% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MTSU FRONT-72 ROOMS · 28 PLAYERS28% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.556384%0%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEFLORIDA ATLANTIC OFFENSESECONDARYMIDDLE TENNESSEE DEFENSE FAU PASS CATCHERSn=2133% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
MTSU SECONDARYn=16 · 1 ROOM12% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
FAU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MTSU
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾+16
−10
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
FAU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MTSU
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
FAU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
MTSU
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS63.2%
50.6%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS62.9%
71.8%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE1.9%
0.4%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = FAU, ORANGE = MTSU) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2022, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE