SAT 19:30 ET|FIRSTBANK STADIUMCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP28|O/U64.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
56
11-2
87
99
65
76%
87
—
39.0
—
-14.0
HOME
0
5-7
59
49
35
64%
25
—
25.0
—
+14.0
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2022CONSENSUS · CONSENSUS
FINALTENN56—VAN0
CLOSED TENN -14.0TOTAL 64.0TENN COVERED · 56 POINTS · UNDER
TENN
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
VAN
TENN
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
VAN
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2022 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 13 FIELD n=63
MARKET
TOTAL64.0
SPREADTENN -14.0
IMPLIED — TENN39.0
IMPLIED — VAN25.0
SCORING ENVIRONMENT
55FBS PCTL
BOTH OFF × BOTH DEF
DISAGREEMENT19 SLOTSThe two rankings disagree by 19 positions on a 63-game board. Both figures are stated; the site does not resolve which is right.
PACE COLLISION
FAST × SLOW
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2022 · FULL SEASON
TENNRECORD MATCHES
10-2ACTUALvs10.1-1.9FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.1 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-0
POINT MARGIN / GAME+23.8
TENNESSEE won 10 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 10.1. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
VANRECORD OVERSTATES
5-7ACTUALvs3.5-8.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE+1.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-1
POINT MARGIN / GAME-11.4
VANDERBILT won 5 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 3.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERTENNESSEEVANDERBILT2022 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%Harrison BaileyPORTAL · UNLV · SHARE NOT MEASURED
RB0%Marcus PierceRB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE0%Dee BeckwithPORTAL · KENTUCKY · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL0%Cade MaysOL · SHARE NOT MEASURED
DL0%Matthew ButlerDL · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB0%Morven JosephPORTAL · FLORIDA ATLANTIC · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB0%CJ TaylorPORTAL · VANDERBILT · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBTayven Jackson · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
RBJustin Williams-Thomas · SIGNEE ★4Dylan Sampson · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
WR/TEKaleb Webb · SIGNEE ★4Cam Miller · SIGNEE ★3Squirrel White · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
OLAddison Nichols · SIGNEE ★4Mo Clipper Jr. · SIGNEE ★3Masai Reddick · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DLTyre West · SIGNEE ★4James Pearce Jr. · SIGNEE ★4Joshua Josephs · SIGNEE ★4INTACT
LBElijah Herring · SIGNEE ★3Kalib Perry · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DBJourdan Thomas · SIGNEE ★3Christian Harrison · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · TENNESSEE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB6666139954 OF 5 GRADED
RB6262738285 OF 8 GRADED
WR/TE696976742018 OF 20 GRADED
OL707085182019 OF 20 GRADED
DL585888862119 OF 21 GRADED
LB606077911613 OF 16 GRADED
DB545471842617 OF 26 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE87th87
BLUE-CHIP RATIO34%86
RECRUITING CLASS#18 · 7/23 BC87
CLASS RANK TREND-8 · 3 CYCLES34
COACH STATUSRETURNING · 2nd YR—
DEV TRANSITION MIX13%9
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
VANCLARK LEA2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
4141
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6464
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
TENNJOSH HEUPEL2TH SEASON4 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
The programme's own prior season applies, under the same returning staff.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
6969
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
4949
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A RETURNING STAFF
|Δ PACE|1.37sn=929
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|6.72%n=931
|Δ HAVOC|2.10%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE|4.28%n=929
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|4.07%n=311
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESTENN OFFENSEVAN OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBTENNESSEE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEVANDERBILT DEFENSE TENN QUARTERBACKSn=51% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
VAN DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERS31% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLTENNESSEE OFFENSEFRONT-7VANDERBILT DEFENSE TENN OFFENSIVE LINEn=2082% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE BY GRADE
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
VAN FRONT-7n=27 · 2 ROOMS29% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBTENNESSEE OFFENSEFRONT-7VANDERBILT DEFENSE TENN RUNNING BACKSn=818% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
VAN FRONT-72 ROOMS · 27 PLAYERS29% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.554072%6%LINEBACKERSLB
0.454171%18%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TETENNESSEE OFFENSESECONDARYVANDERBILT DEFENSE TENN PASS CATCHERSn=2026% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
VAN SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM34% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
TENN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
VAN
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−11
+22
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
TENN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
VAN
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
TENN
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
VAN
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS55.9%
63.8%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS59.9%
61.2%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE3.1%
2.1%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = TENN, ORANGE = VAN) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2022, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE