SAT 15:30 ET|SOFI STADIUMNONCONFTENSIONVACATEDTALENT GAP6|O/U54.0COLLISION75
AP · FPI
TEAM
PTS
2025
TAL
OFF
DEF
RET
PACE
SOS ▾
IMP
ML
SPREAD
AWAY
6
7-6
50
25
76
8%
30
72
24.3
—
+5.5
HOME
29
10-4
44
38
41
86%
39
22
29.8
—
-5.5
IMP = IMPLIED TEAM TOTAL FROM SPREAD + O/U · OFF AND DEF ARE SCOUT TEAM GRADES AS FBS PERCENTILES · EVERY MEASURED FIGURE IS 2022CONSENSUS · CONSENSUS
FINALWSU6—FRES29
CLOSED FRES -5.5TOTAL 54.0FRES COVERED · 35 POINTS · UNDER
WSU
OFFICIAL BOX SCORE
FRES
WSU
DERIVED · PLAY BY PLAY
FRES
OFFICIAL FIGURES ARE THE BOX SCORE AS SCORED. DERIVED FIGURES COME FROM PLAY BY PLAY WITH GARBAGE TIME REMOVED, SO THEY COUNT A DIFFERENT SET OF PLAYS AND WILL NOT TIE OUT AGAINST THE OFFICIAL COLUMN. A BRIGHTENED SIDE LEADS THAT ROW BY THE DIRECTION IN ITS TOOLTIP; TIME OF POSSESSION IS UNMARKED BECAUSE IT IS A TENDENCY, NOT A VIRTUE. SEASON AVERAGES ARE REGULAR SEASON ONLY. MARKET FIGURES ARE BOOK CONSENSUS, NEVER MODEL OUTPUT.
DATA BASISNOTHING ON THIS TAB IS MEASURED YET · 2022 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
MEASURED0 OF 12 GAMES
Real 2026 data. It accumulates weekly and replaces carried figures metric by metric, on the schedules below.
CARRIED14 ROOMS
What each roster did last season, applied player by player. Transfers name the school.
PROGRAM PRIOR2 STAFFS
The programme's own prior identity — or, where the staff is new, the coach's career fingerprint with its sample.
PRESEASON FACT6 PER TEAM
Talent, recruiting, vacated usage, portal and coach status. Preseason inputs.
ABSENT2 CLASSES
Current season luck and situational splits. Shown absent with the reason, never estimated.
FLIPS TO MEASUREDABSENTNOT MEASURED. This asks how many weeks into a season each number becomes trustworthy, which is a within-season question. The back-test measures relationships between one season and the next, so it cannot answer it.
MARKET LINE VS TEAM PROFILEGAME LEVEL · WEEK 1 FIELD n=46
MARKET
TOTAL54.0
SPREADFRES -5.5
IMPLIED — WSU24.3
IMPLIED — FRES29.8
PACE COLLISION
SLOW × MIDDLING
CEILING CHARACTERIDENTITY · NOT QUALITY
IS THE RECORD REAL2022 · FULL SEASON
WSURECORD MATCHES
7-5ACTUALvs7.5-4.5FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.5 W
ONE SCORE RECORD2-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+5.3
WASHINGTON STATE won 7 of 12 against a scoring profile describing 7.5. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
FRESRECORD MATCHES
9-4ACTUALvs9.4-3.6FROM SCORING
GAP TO SCORING PROFILE-0.4 W
ONE SCORE RECORD3-2
POINT MARGIN / GAME+10.2
FRESNO STATE won 9 of 13 against a scoring profile describing 9.4. Both are facts about the same season; the market prices the first.
TEAM LEDGERWASHINGTON STATEFRESNO STATE2022 PRESEASON · NO GAMES PLAYED
VACATED USAGE — AND DID THE ROSTER REFILL ITOPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
VACATED USAGE BY ROOMLEFT OPEN, LARGEST FIRST
QB0%Jayden de LauraPORTAL · ARIZONA · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
RB0%Deon McIntoshRB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
WR/TE0%Mitchell QuinnWR · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
OL0%Brian GreenePORTAL · MICHIGAN STATE · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DL0%Jesus EchevarriaDL · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION3 FURTHER DEPARTURES
LB0%Jahad WoodsLB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION1 FURTHER DEPARTURE
DB0%Daniel IsomDB · SHARE NOT MEASUREDROTATION5 FURTHER DEPARTURES
SHARE OF LAST SEASON'S ROOM PARTICIPATION THAT DEPARTED, LARGEST FIRST · OPEN VOLUME IS A FACT, NOT AN ASSIGNMENT
PORTAL & CLASS INTAKE — WHO CAME INHEADCOUNT, NOT A PROJECTION
QBEmmett Brown · SIGNEE ★3John Mateer · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
RBDjouvensky Schlenbaker · SIGNEE ★3Jaylen Jenkins · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
WR/TEAndre Dollar · SIGNEE ★3Leyton Smithson · SIGNEE ★3David Johnson · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
OLEric Wilder · SIGNEE ★3Zack Miller · SIGNEE ★3Landon Roaten · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DLRashad McKenzie · SIGNEE ★3Jakobus Seth · SIGNEE ★3Kendall Williams · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
LBTaariq Al-Uqdah · SIGNEE ★3Hudson Cedarland · SIGNEE ★3Tony Carter · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
DBJavan Robinson · SIGNEE ★3Bryce Grays · SIGNEE ★3Reece Sylvester · SIGNEE ★3INTACT
PORTAL AND SIGNING-CLASS ARRIVALS AT EACH ROOM THAT LOST VOLUME · A HEADCOUNT, NEVER A USAGE PROJECTION
CARRIED GRADES & TEAM FACTS — THIS ROSTER, TODAYCARRIED FROM 2025, RE-HOMED PLAYER BY PLAYER · WASHINGTON STATE
CARRIED COMPOSITE
0.00 PCTL
ROOM
GRADE
FBS PCTL
OPP-ADJ
TAL
RET
N
OBS
QB373799072 OF 7 GRADED
RB5252635775 OF 7 GRADED
WR/TE404056472516 OF 25 GRADED
OL313158321911 OF 19 GRADED
DL525250772314 OF 23 GRADED
LB58583456115 OF 11 GRADED
DB424244582415 OF 24 GRADED
TEAM FACTS — FULLY KNOWN NOWPRESEASON FACT
TALENT COMPOSITE50th50
BLUE-CHIP RATIO2%20
RECRUITING CLASS#60 · 0/31 BC56
CLASS RANK TREND-4 · 3 CYCLES42
COACH STATUSNEW HEAD COACH—
DEV TRANSITION MIX24%44
EVERY ROW HERE IS KNOWABLE TODAY — NONE OF IT WAITS ON A GAME
COACH PRIOR — WHO APPLIES, AND WHAT A CHANGE MOVESBASIS · PROGRAM PRIOR
FRESJEFF TEDFORDFIRST SEASON2 SEASONS · 1 PROGRAMME
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9898
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
WSUJAKE DICKERTFIRST SEASON4 SEASONS · 2 PROGRAMMES
A new staff, so the coach's own career fingerprint stands in for the programme's prior season.
PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED
9494
FOURTH-DOWN AGGRESSION
6868
HOW MUCH IDENTITY MOVES WITH A NEW STAFF
|Δ EXPLOSIVENESS|8.61%n=240
|Δ HAVOC|2.50%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE|5.18%n=240
|Δ PASS RATE OVER EXPECTED|5.24%n=87
|Δ PACE|1.63sn=240
MEDIAN ABSOLUTE SEASON-TO-SEASON SHIFT · 2016-2026 · MAGNITUDE, NOT DIRECTION — A NEW STAFF MOVES PASS RATE AND PACE BARELY MORE THAN A RETURNING ONE
POSITION GROUPS — WHERE THE VOLUME LIVESWSU OFFENSEFRES OFFENSERETURNINGDEPARTEDCOLLAPSE ALL
▾QBWASHINGTON STATE OFFENSEFULL DEFENSEFRESNO STATE DEFENSE WSU QUARTERBACKSn=7100% VACATED
QUARTERBACKS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FRES DEFENSE — GROUP GRADES3 ROOMS · 50 PLAYERS29% VACATED
DEFENSIVE ROOMS · GROUP GRADES
GRD
RET
BLU
THE QUARTERBACK PLAYS THE WHOLE SIDE — SHOWN AS ITS THREE ROOM GRADES, NOT MAN FOR MAN · PER PLAYER DETAIL LIVES IN THE OTHER DRAWERS
▾OLWASHINGTON STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7FRESNO STATE DEFENSE WSU OFFENSIVE LINEn=1968% VACATED
FIVE-MAN LINE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FRES FRONT-7n=27 · 2 ROOMS20% VACATED
PASS RUSH · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
▾RBWASHINGTON STATE OFFENSEFRONT-7FRESNO STATE DEFENSE WSU RUNNING BACKSn=743% VACATED
BACKFIELD · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FRES FRONT-72 ROOMS · 27 PLAYERS19% VACATED
ROOMS IN THE COMPOSITE
WT
GRD
RET
BLU
DEFENSIVE LINEDL
0.553472%6%LINEBACKERSLB
0.453492%11%EACH ROOM ON ITS OWN GRADE, NOT LISTED MAN FOR MAN · THE WEIGHTS DEFINE WHO PLAYS WHOM
▾WR/TEWASHINGTON STATE OFFENSESECONDARYFRESNO STATE DEFENSE WSU PASS CATCHERSn=2553% VACATED
PASS CATCHERS · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
PARTICIPATION SHARE IS OF THIS ROOM · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
FRES SECONDARYn=23 · 1 ROOM36% VACATED
COVERAGE · PLAYED THIS SEASON FIRST
OVR
EXP
PT%
TAL
★REC
vsCOH
THE DEFENDERS THIS ROOM FACES, BY GRADE · THESE SIX COLUMNS DESCRIBE THE ROSTER · PASS RUSH AND COVERAGE DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
RETURNINGPORTAL — PRIOR SCHOOL AND PORTAL STARS NAMEDLAST YR ≈ — RATES FROM HIS LAST MEASURED SEASON, NOT THE PROJECTED ROLEDEPARTEDVS COH = PRODUCTION vs OWN RECRUITING COHORT MEDIAN · CURVE = AHEAD / ON / BEHIND AT ±8 · PT% IS HIS SHARE OF HIS OWN ROOM · UNIT-AGAINST-UNIT AND USAGE DETAIL IS ON THE MATCHUP TAB
TEAM QUALITYHOUSE GRADE + REFERENCES
METRIC
WSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FRES
TALENT − PRODUCTION ▾−25
−14
SCOUT TEAM GRADE DECOMPOSES INTO OFFENSE AND DEFENSE, EACH BUILT FROM THE POSITION ROOM GRADES ABOVE · ROOM WEIGHTS ARE MEASURED AGAINST UNIT EPA, NOT ASSUMED · SPECIAL TEAMS ARE NOT IN IT YET
FIVE FACTORSNATIONAL PERCENTILES
METRIC
WSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FRES
THE FIVE FACTORS ARE CORRELATED, NOT FIVE INDEPENDENT DIALS · TURNOVER MARGIN IS THE LEAST STABLE OF THEM YEAR OVER YEAR
TEAM IDENTITYTENDENCIES THAT SET VOLUME
METRIC
WSU
FBS PCTL 0 ── 100
FRES
RUN RATE — STANDARD DNS38.4%
54.3%
PASS RATE — PASSING DNS65.9%
78.2%
GARBAGE TIME SHARE0.3%
1.8%
EVERY ROW HERE IS COUNTED FROM PLAY BY PLAY · NONE OF IT IS A QUALITY RATING — FURTHER RIGHT IS MORE OF THE THING, NOT BETTER · SCHEME DETAIL LIVES ON THE MATCHUP TAB
EVERY PERCENTILE READS HIGH-IS-GOOD · CELL SHADE = FBS PERCENTILE OF THE VALUE · DOTS PLOT BOTH TEAMS ON ONE 0–100 TRACK (GOLD = WSU, ORANGE = FRES) · MEASURED FIGURES ARE 2022, GARBAGE-TIME FILTERED
≈ MARKS AN ESTIMATED VALUE · A CARRIED FIGURE IS WHAT A PLAYER DID LAST SEASON · PORTAL MARKS PARTICIPATION EARNED AT THE NAMED SCHOOL
VACATED VOLUME IS STATED AS OPEN AND NEVER ASSIGNED TO A SUCCESSOR · SPREAD, TOTAL, ML AND IMPLIED TOTALS ARE CONSENSUS MARKET FIGURES · NO PROJECTIONS ON THIS PAGE